Forensic Analysis · Technology / Software · as of Aug 11, 2026
Pagerduty, Inc. (PD)
A forensic read on Pagerduty, Inc. built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
D · Weak — demands caution
Forensic grade
Grey Zone
Financial health
2.0
Distress distance
Clean
Earnings quality
4
Forensic signals
4.7
P / E (ttm)
68.4%
ROE
$919M
Market cap
5.4%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (red flags, auditor quality, say on pay, board independence). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
Pagerduty, Inc. earns a D (Weak — demands caution) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 2.0, placing it in the Grey zone. 4 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by accruals ratio (% of noa).
What the filings flag
+45.3%
FY2025→FY2026
Accruals ratio (% of NOA).Net operating assets grew +45.3% relative to their own average in FY2026 — scaled by NOA itself, not total assets (see the Forensic Screens card's differently-scaled Sloan Accrual Ratio for that read). Accruals are building sharply — a large slice of profit sits in operating assets, not cash; Richardson/Sloan link high accruals to weaker future returns as they reverse. The build is led by payables paid down 8% against -7% in cost of sales. The cash-flow cross-check agrees: reported earnings ran ahead of operating cash by 16% of net operating assets.
1.2%
FY2026
Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is 1.2% in the latest fiscal year and rising from -37% — well below its ~10% cost of capital, so reinvested dollars may be destroying value, not building it.
+1.6%/yr
FY2023–FY2026
Share-count dilution.Diluted share count changed +5% over the last 3 years to FY2026 (+1.6%/yr). The count is growing: more stock was issued than repurchased over this window, so aggregate results grew faster than their per-share equivalents. That's ~1.6% shaved off per-share growth every year — total profit has to grow that much just to keep earnings-per-share flat, and a stake held since FY2023 has been diluted ~5%.
121% of FCF
FY2026
Shareholder returns.Returned $135M to shareholders (buybacks + dividends) in FY2026 — 121% of free cash flow. More than free cash flow generated — and beyond operating cash too, so the extra is coming from debt or cash reserves, which isn't sustainable indefinitely. Counting the $98M of stock-based comp paid out in shares on top of that, the combined claim on free cash flow is 208%.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$492.5M
Revenue Growth YoY+5.4%
Revenue CAGR (3yr)+9.9%
Net Margin35.2%
Free Cash Flow$111.9M
Return on Equity68.4%
Debt / Equity1.66x
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from Pagerduty, Inc.'s actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?