Orion Group Holdings Inc (ORN) Stock — Forensic Analysis, Red Flags & Rating | Stockonomy · Stockonomy
Forensic Analysis · Industrials / Manufacturing / Defense · as of Sep 24, 2026
Orion Group Holdings Inc (ORN)
A forensic read on Orion Group Holdings Inc built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
D · Weak — demands caution
Forensic grade
Grey Zone
Financial health
2.4
Distress distance
Clean
Earnings quality
4
Forensic signals
101.7
P / E (ttm)
1.6%
ROE
$364M
Market cap
7.0%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (red flags, auditor quality, say on pay, board independence, going concern, valuation). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
Orion Group Holdings Inc earns a D (Weak — demands caution) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 2.4, placing it in the Grey zone. 4 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by return on invested capital.
What the filings flag
5.9%
FY2025
Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is 5.9% in the latest fiscal year and rising across FY2021–FY2025 from -3% — well below the ~9% cost of capital we hold this sector to, and it has been across FY2021–FY2025, so reinvested dollars have not been earning their keep. The capital base behind it barely moved across FY2021–FY2025 ($217M to $211M, -3%), so there has been little new capital for that return to be earned on.
+8.1%/yr
FY2022–FY2025
Share-count dilution.Diluted share count changed +26% over the last 3 years to FY2025 (+8.1%/yr). The count is growing: more stock was issued than repurchased over this window, so aggregate results grew faster than their per-share equivalents. That's ~8.1% shaved off per-share growth every year — total profit has to grow that much just to keep earnings-per-share flat, and a stake held since FY2022 has been diluted ~21%.
0.6% of rev
FY2025
Stock-based comp load.Stock-based compensation ran 0.6% of revenue in FY2025 — about $0.14 per diluted share. No cash left the business to pay it, which is why operating cash flow adds it back. Net of repurchases the diluted count still rose about 8.2% a year and that rate is not falling, so total profit has to grow by that much annually before any of it reaches a share. Stock compensation is one source of that issuance; acquisition consideration, equity raises, convertibles and other employee plans also net into the count, and these figures do not separate them.
+12.7%
FY2024→FY2025
Accruals ratio (% of NOA).Net operating assets grew +12.7% relative to their own average in FY2025 — scaled by NOA itself, not by total assets, which is what the Forensic Screens card's own accrual row divides by. Accruals are building faster than is comfortable — part of profit is sitting in the balance sheet rather than turning to cash. The build is led by inventory up +23% against +6% in cost of sales. A cash-flow measure on the same base disagrees: reported earnings ran behind operating cash by 16% of net operating assets, against an accruals ratio of 12.7%. The two are computed differently: the accruals ratio is the change in net operating assets over average net operating assets, while the cash-flow figure is net income less operating cash flow over that same average. Read them as two results, not one.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$852.3M
Revenue Growth YoY+7.0%
Revenue CAGR (3yr)+4.4%
Net Margin0.3%
Free Cash Flow-$10.8M
Return on Equity1.6%
Debt / Equity0.05x
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from Orion Group Holdings Inc's actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?