Forensic Analysis · Homebuilders & Residential Construction · as of Nov 9, 2026
Orion Group Holdings Inc (ORN)
A forensic read on Orion Group Holdings Inc built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
C · Mixed — selective
Forensic grade
Grey Zone
Financial health
1.6
Distress distance
Clean
Earnings quality
4
Forensic signals
1.6%
ROE
7.0%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (auditor quality, say on pay, board independence, going concern). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
Orion Group Holdings Inc earns a C (Mixed — selective) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 1.6, placing it in the Grey zone. 4 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by return on invested capital.
What the filings flag
6.1%
FY2025
Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is 6.1% in the latest fiscal year and rising across FY2023–FY2025 from -2.9%. After-tax operating profit was ($5M) in FY2023 and $13M in FY2025, with operating income at -0.9% of revenue in FY2023, 1.4% in FY2024 and 1.7% in FY2025. The capital base behind it grew +12% across FY2023–FY2025, from $183M to $205M, and the return did not fall doing it, so the dollars added over that window earned at least the -2.9% the older base was already earning.
+10.7%/yr
FY2023–FY2025
Share-count dilution.Diluted share count changed +23% over the last 2 years to FY2025 (+10.7%/yr). The count is growing — 32.3M shares in FY2023, 39.6M in FY2025: more stock was issued than repurchased over this window, so aggregate results grew faster than their per-share equivalents. That's ~10.7% shaved off per-share growth every year — total profit has to grow that much just to keep earnings-per-share flat, and a stake held since FY2023 has been diluted ~18%.
0.6% of rev
FY2025
Stock-based comp load.Stock-based compensation ran 0.6% of revenue in FY2025 — about $0.14 per diluted share. No cash left the business to pay it, which is why operating cash flow adds it back. Net of repurchases the diluted count still rose about 10.7% a year across FY2023–FY2025 and that rate is not falling, so total profit has to grow by that much annually before any of it reaches a share. Stock compensation is one source of that issuance; acquisition consideration, equity raises, convertibles and other employee plans also net into the count, and these figures do not separate them.
+12.7%
FY2024→FY2025
Accruals ratio (% of NOA).Net operating assets grew +12.7% relative to their own average in FY2025 — scaled by NOA itself, not by total assets, which is what the Forensic Screens card's own accrual row divides by. Accruals are building faster than is comfortable — part of profit is sitting in the balance sheet rather than turning to cash. The build is led by inventory up +23% against +6% in cost of sales. A cash-flow measure on the same base disagrees: reported earnings ran behind operating cash by 16% of net operating assets, against an accruals ratio of 12.7%. The two are computed differently: the accruals ratio is the change in net operating assets over average net operating assets, while the cash-flow figure is net income less operating cash flow over that same average. Read them as two results, not one.Accruals ratio: the year-over-year change in net operating assets, relative to their own average.NOA (net operating assets): the money tied up in running the business, operating assets minus operating liabilities.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$852.3M
Revenue Growth YoY+7.0%
Revenue CAGR (2yr)+9.4%
Net Margin0.3%
Free Cash Flow-$10.8M
Return on Equity1.6%
Debt / Equity0.05x
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from Orion Group Holdings Inc's actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?