One Gas, Inc. (OGS) Stock — Forensic Analysis, Red Flags & Rating | Stockonomy · Stockonomy
Forensic Analysis · Energy / Oil & Gas · as of Sep 24, 2026
One Gas, Inc. (OGS)
A forensic read on One Gas, Inc. built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
C · Mixed — selective
Forensic grade
Grey Zone
Financial health
1.1
Distress distance
Clean
Earnings quality
5
Forensic signals
16.4
P / E (ttm)
7.7%
ROE
$4.5B
Market cap
4.41%
Dividend yield
42.5%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (red flags, auditor quality, say on pay, board independence, going concern, valuation). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
One Gas, Inc. earns a C (Mixed — selective) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 1.1, placing it in the Grey zone. 5 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by return on invested capital.
What the filings flag
5.0%
FY2025
Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is 5.0% in the latest fiscal year and steady across FY2021–FY2025, inside a 1.5-point range — well below the ~8% cost of capital we hold this sector to, and it has been across FY2013–FY2025, so reinvested dollars have not been earning their keep. The capital base behind it barely moved across FY2021–FY2025 ($7.4B to $7.6B, +2%), so there has been little new capital for that return to be earned on.
+3.7%/yr
FY2022–FY2025
Share-count dilution.Diluted share count changed +11% over the last 3 years to FY2025 (+3.7%/yr). The count is growing: more stock was issued than repurchased over this window, so aggregate results grew faster than their per-share equivalents. That's ~3.7% shaved off per-share growth every year — total profit has to grow that much just to keep earnings-per-share flat, and a stake held since FY2022 has been diluted ~10%.
0.4% of rev
FY2022
Stock-based comp load.Stock-based compensation ran 0.4% of revenue and 1% of free cash flow in FY2022 — about $0.20 per diluted share. No cash left the business to pay it, which is why operating cash flow adds it back. Net of repurchases the diluted count still rose about 3.7% a year and that rate is not falling, so total profit has to grow by that much annually before any of it reaches a share. Stock compensation is one source of that issuance; acquisition consideration, equity raises, convertibles and other employee plans also net into the count, and these figures do not separate them.
FCF ($128M)
FY2025
Shareholder returns.Returned $161M to shareholders (buybacks + dividends) in FY2025, but free cash flow was ($128M) after capex — there was no free cash flow to fund the payout from at all, though operating cash flow alone was $579M — 28% of that. The entire return is coming from debt or cash reserves, not cash the business itself generated — a harder case than returns merely running ahead of free cash flow, since here there was none to run ahead of.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$2.58B
Revenue Growth YoY+42.5%
Revenue CAGR (3yr)+16.0%
Net Margin8.6%
Free Cash Flow-$128.4M
Return on Equity7.7%
Debt / Equity0.78x
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from One Gas, Inc.'s actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?
Data from SEC EDGAR public filings · metrics as of Sep 24, 2026. Forensic signals flag probability, not certainty.
+10.5%
FY2024→FY2025
Accruals ratio (% of NOA).Net operating assets grew +10.5% relative to their own average in FY2025 — scaled by NOA itself, not by total assets, which is what the Forensic Screens card's own accrual row divides by. Accruals are building faster than is comfortable — part of profit is sitting in the balance sheet rather than turning to cash. The build is led by payables paid down 15% on the year and receivables up +13% on the year. A cash-flow measure on the same base disagrees: reported earnings ran behind operating cash by 5% of net operating assets, against an accruals ratio of 10.5%. The two are computed differently: the accruals ratio is the change in net operating assets over average net operating assets, while the cash-flow figure is net income less operating cash flow over that same average. Read them as two results, not one.