Forensic Analysis · Healthcare / Pharmaceuticals / Biotech · as of Jun 28, 2026
Orchestra BioMed Holdings, Inc. (OBIO)
A forensic read on Orchestra BioMed Holdings, Inc. built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
D · Weak — demands caution
Forensic grade
Distress
Financial health
-7.0
Altman Z-score
Watch
Earnings quality
5
Forensic signals
-137.8%
ROE
$254M
Market cap
Orchestra BioMed Holdings, Inc. earns a D (Weak — demands caution) forensic quality grade, and its Altman Z-score is -7.0, placing it in the Distress zone. 5 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by accruals ratio.
What the filings flag
+51.9%Accruals ratio.Net operating assets grew +51.9% relative to their average in FY2025 — the accrual component of earnings. Accruals are building sharply — a large slice of profit sits in operating assets, not cash; Richardson/Sloan link high accruals to weaker future returns as they reverse. The cash-flow cross-check agrees: reported earnings ran behind operating cash by -11% of net operating assets.
596dInventory days.Days inventory outstanding moved from 310 to 596 FY2024→FY2025 (against cost of goods sold; inventory +79% vs -7% in cost of sales). Inventory is outrunning what's being sold — a flag for softening demand or obsolescence risk ahead.
-65%Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is -65% and slipping from -45% — well below its ~10% cost of capital, so reinvested dollars may be destroying value, not building it.
+72.9%/yrShare-count dilution.Diluted share count changed +219% over the last 3 years to FY2025 (+72.9%/yr). The count is GROWING — existing holders are being diluted. That's ~72.9% shaved off per-share growth every year — total profit has to grow that much just to keep earnings-per-share flat, and a stake held since FY2022 has been diluted ~219%.
36% of revStock-based comp load.Stock-based compensation ran 36% of revenue in FY2025 — about $0.25 per diluted share. Meaningful — reported free cash flow flatters the economics, since SBC is a real cost paid in shares.
Key fundamentals
Net Margin-157.4%
Debt / Equity0.28x
Free Cash Flow$-49.5M
Latest Revenue$33.5M
Return on Equity-98.4%
Revenue Growth YoY+1169.2%
Go deeper — free with an account
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. An account adds the full interactive deep-dive on Orchestra BioMed Holdings, Inc.:
🔒The written investment read — what the numbers mean, in plain English
🔒Ask anything about OBIO's filings — AI Q&A across the 10-K, 10-Qs & 8-Ks
🔒Interactive valuation — reverse-DCF sliders, Monte Carlo & scenario stress
🔒Calibrated 12-month price forecast, with the math shown