Forensic Analysis · Healthcare / Pharmaceuticals / Biotech · as of Aug 11, 2026
Novavax Inc (NVAX)
A forensic read on Novavax Inc built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
D · Weak — demands caution
Forensic grade
Distress
Financial health
-6.1
Distress distance
Watch
Earnings quality
4
Forensic signals
-5.2
P / E (ttm)
$1.3B
Market cap
0.00%
Dividend yield
64.7%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (red flags, auditor quality, say on pay, board independence). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
Novavax Inc earns a D (Weak — demands caution) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads -6.1, placing it in the Distress zone. 4 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by share-count dilution.
What the filings flag
+30.3%/yr
FY2022–FY2025
Share-count dilution.Diluted share count changed +121% over the last 3 years to FY2025 (+30.3%/yr). The count is growing: more stock was issued than repurchased over this window, so aggregate results grew faster than their per-share equivalents. That's ~30.3% shaved off per-share growth every year — total profit has to grow that much just to keep earnings-per-share flat, and a stake held since FY2022 has been diluted ~55%.
-$1.0B
FY2023–FY2025
Cash burn vs. reported loss.Over FY2023–FY2025, the company reported a cumulative net loss of $292.3M against operating cash flow of -$1.0B. Cash burn ran heavier than the reported loss — something outside net income (working capital, a cash item not in the P&L) is consuming cash faster than the loss alone implies.
51d
FY2024→FY2025
Inventory days.Days inventory outstanding moved from 45 to 51 FY2024→FY2025 (against cost of goods sold; inventory +32% vs -64% in cost of sales). Inventory is building a little faster than sales — watch for markdowns.
3% of rev
FY2025
Stock-based comp load.Stock-based compensation ran 3% of revenue in FY2025 — about $0.21 per diluted share. The cost of it is not in the cash flow — no cash left the business — it is in the count, and there it has run at about 31.2% a year and is falling.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$1.12B
Revenue Growth YoY+64.7%
Revenue CAGR (3yr)-17.2%
Net Margin39.2%
Free Cash Flow-$250.2M
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from Novavax Inc's actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?