Forensic Analysis · Healthcare / Pharmaceuticals / Biotech · as of Jun 27, 2026
NOVAVAX INC (NVAX)
A forensic read on NOVAVAX INC built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
F · Poor — capital at risk
Forensic grade
Distress
Financial health
-7.3
Altman Z-score
Watch
Earnings quality
2
Forensic signals
283.1%
ROE
$1.5B
Market cap
NOVAVAX INC earns a F (Poor — capital at risk) forensic quality grade, and its Altman Z-score is -7.3, placing it in the Distress zone. 2 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by inventory days.
What the filings flag
58dInventory days.Days inventory outstanding moved from 16 to 58 FY2024→FY2025 (against cost of goods sold; inventory +32% vs -64% in cost of sales). Inventory is outrunning what's being sold — a flag for softening demand or obsolescence risk ahead.
+40.5%/yrShare-count dilution.Diluted share count changed +121% over the last 3 years to FY2025 (+40.5%/yr). The count is GROWING — existing holders are being diluted. That's ~40.5% shaved off per-share growth every year — total profit has to grow that much just to keep earnings-per-share flat, and a stake held since FY2022 has been diluted ~121%.
Key fundamentals
Net Margin39.2%
Free Cash Flow$-250.2M
Latest Revenue$1.12B
Revenue Growth YoY+64.7%
Go deeper — free with an account
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. An account adds the full interactive deep-dive on NOVAVAX INC:
🔒The written investment read — what the numbers mean, in plain English
🔒Ask anything about NVAX's filings — AI Q&A across the 10-K, 10-Qs & 8-Ks
🔒Interactive valuation — reverse-DCF sliders, Monte Carlo & scenario stress
🔒Calibrated 12-month price forecast, with the math shown