Forensic Analysis · Healthcare / Pharmaceuticals / Biotech · as of Jun 27, 2026
Natera, Inc. (NTRA)
A forensic read on Natera, Inc. built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
D · Weak — demands caution
Forensic grade
Distress
Financial health
0.9
Altman Z-score
Clean
Earnings quality
4
Forensic signals
-15.1%
ROE
$37.5B
Market cap
Natera, Inc. earns a D (Weak — demands caution) forensic quality grade, and its Altman Z-score is 0.9, placing it in the Distress zone. 4 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by accruals ratio.
What the filings flag
+33.7%Accruals ratio.Net operating assets grew +33.7% relative to their average in FY2025 — the accrual component of earnings. Accruals are building sharply — a large slice of profit sits in operating assets, not cash; Richardson/Sloan link high accruals to weaker future returns as they reverse. The cash-flow cross-check agrees: reported earnings ran behind operating cash by -28% of net operating assets.
-12%Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is -12% and rising from -61% — well below its ~10% cost of capital, so reinvested dollars may be destroying value, not building it.
+13.0%/yrShare-count dilution.Diluted share count changed +39% over the last 3 years to FY2025 (+13.0%/yr). The count is GROWING — existing holders are being diluted. That's ~13.0% shaved off per-share growth every year — total profit has to grow that much just to keep earnings-per-share flat, and a stake held since FY2022 has been diluted ~39%.
15% of revStock-based comp load.Stock-based compensation ran 15% of revenue and 325% of free cash flow in FY2025 — about $2.59 per diluted share. Heavy — a large slice of 'free cash flow' is really being paid out in stock, so the true owner cash per share is well below the headline.
Key fundamentals
Net Margin-9.0%
Debt / Equity0.21x
Free Cash Flow$109.1M
Latest Revenue$2.31B
Return on Equity-12.2%
Revenue Growth YoY+35.9%
Go deeper — free with an account
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. An account adds the full interactive deep-dive on Natera, Inc.:
🔒The written investment read — what the numbers mean, in plain English
🔒Ask anything about NTRA's filings — AI Q&A across the 10-K, 10-Qs & 8-Ks
🔒Interactive valuation — reverse-DCF sliders, Monte Carlo & scenario stress
🔒Calibrated 12-month price forecast, with the math shown