Forensic Analysis · Gas Distribution Utility · as of Nov 8, 2026
National Fuel Gas Co (NFG)
A forensic read on National Fuel Gas Co built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
B · Sound & dependable
Forensic grade
Grey Zone
Financial health
1.6
Distress distance
Clean
Earnings quality
2
Forensic signals
33.7%
ROE
17.1%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (auditor quality, say on pay, board independence, going concern). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
National Fuel Gas Co earns a B (Sound & dependable) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 1.6, placing it in the Grey zone. 2 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by return on invested capital.
What the filings flag
7.7%
FY2025
Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is 7.7% in the latest fiscal year, against 7.6% in FY2023, having run between 2.5% and 7.7% across FY2023–FY2025 with no direction held. After-tax operating profit was $561M in FY2023 and $608M in FY2025, with operating income at 34.7% of revenue in FY2023, 10.8% in FY2024 and 35.7% in FY2025. The capital base behind it went from $7.4B in FY2023 to $7.9B in FY2025 (+6%), while the revenue it carried went from $2.2B to $2.3B. Across FY2024–FY2025, $1.8B went into capital expenditure against $914M of total depreciation and amortisation. The base is struck net of amortisation, write-downs and the current liabilities that fund it, so it moved by less than that spending net of the wear, and this row does not say which of those absorbed the difference. FY2024's operating profit carried a $519M asset write-down that alone took about 6.1 points off that year's return; FY2024 sits between the two ends of FY2023–FY2025, so the charge shapes the path between them without moving the change across it. A non-cash write-down lowers the reported return in the year it lands.
130% of FCF
FY2025
Shareholder returns.Returned $243M to shareholders (buybacks + dividends) in FY2025 — 130% of free cash flow, but 22% of operating cash flow. Returns run ahead of free cash flow, with the gap funded by debt or cash reserves rather than the cash the business itself throws off; the payout itself is still covered by operating cash. Counting the $20M of stock-based comp paid out in shares on top of that, the combined claim on free cash flow is 140%.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$2.28B
Revenue Growth YoY+17.1%
Revenue CAGR (2yr)+2.4%
Net Margin22.8%
Free Cash Flow$187.2M
Return on Equity33.7%
Debt / Equity0.87x
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from National Fuel Gas Co's actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?