Forensic Analysis · Gas Distribution Utility · as of Nov 9, 2026
New Fortress Energy Inc. (NFE)
A forensic read on New Fortress Energy Inc. built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
D · Weak — demands caution
Forensic grade
Distress
Financial health
-5.8
Distress distance
6
Forensic signals
-178.9%
ROE
-36.2%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (auditor quality, say on pay, board independence, going concern). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
New Fortress Energy Inc. earns a D (Weak — demands caution) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads -5.8, placing it in the Distress zone. 6 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by return on invested capital.
What the filings flag
-8.9%
FY2025
Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is -8.9% in the latest fiscal year and slipping across FY2023–FY2025 from 8.8%. After-tax operating profit was $788M in FY2023 and ($885M) in FY2025, with operating income at 39.1% of revenue in FY2023, 22.4% in FY2024 and -74.5% in FY2025. The capital base behind it grew +12% across FY2023–FY2025, from $8.9B to $10.0B, while the return fell 17.7 points, so the dollars added over that window earned less than the 8.8% the older base was already earning. $3.6B of the $10.0B base at FY2025 is construction in progress (36.0%) — paid for and not yet in service. FY2025's operating profit carried a $861M asset write-down, a $598M goodwill write-off and a $68M restructuring charge that alone took about 12.1 points off that year's return, so about 12.1 of the 17.7-point fall across FY2023–FY2025 is that charge landing in the latest year rather than the capital earning less. A non-cash write-down lowers the reported return in the year it lands.
+16.1%/yr
FY2023–FY2025
Share-count dilution.Diluted share count changed +35% over the last 2 years to FY2025 (+16.1%/yr). The count is growing — 206.5M shares in FY2023, 278.5M in FY2025: more stock was issued than repurchased over this window, so aggregate results grew faster than their per-share equivalents. That's ~16.1% shaved off per-share growth every year — total profit has to grow that much just to keep earnings-per-share flat, and a stake held since FY2023 has been diluted ~26%.
1.0% of rev
FY2025
Stock-based comp load.Stock-based compensation ran 1.0% of revenue in FY2025 — about $0.05 per diluted share. No cash left the business to pay it, which is why operating cash flow adds it back. Net of repurchases the diluted count still rose about 16.1% a year across FY2023–FY2025 and that rate is not falling, so total profit has to grow by that much annually before any of it reaches a share. Stock compensation is one source of that issuance; acquisition consideration, equity raises, convertibles and other employee plans also net into the count, and these figures do not separate them.
FCF ($1.2B)
FY2025
Shareholder returns.Returned $3M to shareholders (buybacks + dividends) in FY2025, but free cash flow was ($1.2B) after capex — there was no free cash flow to fund the payout from at all, and operating cash flow itself was negative or zero that year too. The entire return is coming from debt or cash reserves, not cash the business itself generated — a harder case than returns merely running ahead of free cash flow, since here there was none to run ahead of.
110d DSO
FY2024→FY2025
Receivables vs revenue.Days sales outstanding moved from 51 to 110 days FY2024→FY2025 (receivables +36% vs revenue -36%). Receivables are creeping up relative to sales. Across FY2023–FY2025 the day count ran 52 → 51 → 110 days, so the latest reading sits on top of a record that was flat or falling before it — one year's move, not a direction the business has been travelling in. Deferred revenue was roughly flat (-9%) over the same period, which doesn't corroborate a benign upfront-billing explanation for the receivables build. Both figures are measured on period-end balances rather than the beginning-plus-ending average, because averaging needs the balance a year before every reading — FY2024's opening balance is on file, but across the 3 fiscal years read here (FY2023–FY2025) the average yields only 2 day counts (1 step), too few to tell a climb from one year's move.DSO (days sales outstanding): the average days the company waits to collect cash after a sale.
44d
FY2024→FY2025
Inventory days.Days inventory outstanding moved from 38 to 44 FY2024→FY2025 (against cost of goods sold; inventory +16% vs -14% in cost of sales). Inventory is building a little faster than sales — watch for markdowns.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$1.50B
Revenue Growth YoY-36.2%
Revenue CAGR (2yr)-20.7%
Net Margin-122.6%
Free Cash Flow-$1.23B
Return on Equity-178.9%
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from New Fortress Energy Inc.'s actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?