Forensic Analysis · Energy / Oil & Gas · as of Jun 27, 2026
NextDecade Corp (NEXT)
A forensic read on NextDecade Corp built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
F · Poor — capital at risk
Forensic grade
Distress
Financial health
-0.6
Altman Z-score
Clean
Earnings quality
3
Forensic signals
-150.8%
ROE
$2.0B
Market cap
NextDecade Corp earns a F (Poor — capital at risk) forensic quality grade, and its Altman Z-score is -0.6, placing it in the Distress zone. 3 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by accruals ratio.
What the filings flag
+63.7%Accruals ratio.Net operating assets grew +63.7% relative to their average in FY2025 — the accrual component of earnings. Accruals are building sharply — a large slice of profit sits in operating assets, not cash; Richardson/Sloan link high accruals to weaker future returns as they reverse. The cash-flow cross-check agrees: reported earnings ran in line with operating cash by -3% of net operating assets.
-2%Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is -2% and rising from -19% — well below its ~8% cost of capital, so reinvested dollars may be destroying value, not building it.
+33.8%/yrShare-count dilution.Diluted share count changed +101% over the last 3 years to FY2025 (+33.8%/yr). The count is GROWING — existing holders are being diluted. That's ~33.8% shaved off per-share growth every year — total profit has to grow that much just to keep earnings-per-share flat, and a stake held since FY2022 has been diluted ~101%.
Key fundamentals
Free Cash Flow$-5.02B
Go deeper — free with an account
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. An account adds the full interactive deep-dive on NextDecade Corp:
🔒The written investment read — what the numbers mean, in plain English
🔒Ask anything about NEXT's filings — AI Q&A across the 10-K, 10-Qs & 8-Ks
🔒Interactive valuation — reverse-DCF sliders, Monte Carlo & scenario stress
🔒Calibrated 12-month price forecast, with the math shown