Forensic Analysis · Energy / Oil & Gas · as of Jun 27, 2026
MP Materials Corp. / DE (MP)
A forensic read on MP Materials Corp. / DE built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
D · Weak — demands caution
Forensic grade
Safe
Financial health
4.5
Altman Z-score
Watch
Earnings quality
5
Forensic signals
-3.5%
ROE
$9.6B
Market cap
MP Materials Corp. / DE earns a D (Weak — demands caution) forensic quality grade, and its Altman Z-score is 4.5, placing it in the Safe zone. 5 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by accruals ratio.
What the filings flag
+27.8%Accruals ratio.Net operating assets grew +27.8% relative to their average in FY2025 — the accrual component of earnings. Accruals are building sharply — a large slice of profit sits in operating assets, not cash; Richardson/Sloan link high accruals to weaker future returns as they reverse. The cash-flow cross-check agrees: reported earnings ran in line with operating cash by +4% of net operating assets.
279dInventory days.Days inventory outstanding moved from 193 to 279 FY2024→FY2025 (against revenue (COGS not disclosed); inventory +59% vs +10% in revenue). Inventory is outrunning what's being sold — a flag for softening demand or obsolescence risk ahead.
-5%Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is -5% and slipping from 14% — well below its ~8% cost of capital, so reinvested dollars may be destroying value, not building it.
stoppedShareholder returns — halted.Capital returns have STOPPED — $225M of buybacks + dividends in FY2024, but ~$0 in FY2025. A halt usually means the company is conserving cash; understand why before reading it as neutral.
13% of revStock-based comp load.Stock-based compensation ran 13% of revenue in FY2025 — about $0.18 per diluted share. Meaningful — reported free cash flow flatters the economics, since SBC is a real cost paid in shares.
Key fundamentals
Net Margin-38.3%
Debt / Equity0.50x
Free Cash Flow$-328.1M
Latest Revenue$224.4M
Return on Equity-4.3%
Revenue Growth YoY+10.1%
Go deeper — free with an account
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. An account adds the full interactive deep-dive on MP Materials Corp. / DE:
🔒The written investment read — what the numbers mean, in plain English
🔒Ask anything about MP's filings — AI Q&A across the 10-K, 10-Qs & 8-Ks
🔒Interactive valuation — reverse-DCF sliders, Monte Carlo & scenario stress
🔒Calibrated 12-month price forecast, with the math shown