A forensic read on Mosaic Co built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
C · Mixed — selective
Forensic grade
Safe
Financial health
3.5
Distress distance
Clean
Earnings quality
5
Forensic signals
4.6%
ROE
8.4%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (auditor quality, say on pay, board independence, going concern). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
Mosaic Co earns a C (Mixed — selective) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 3.5, placing it in the Safe zone. 5 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by inventory days.
What the filings flag
106d
FY2024→FY2025
Inventory days.Days inventory outstanding moved from 96 to 106 FY2024→FY2025 (against cost of goods sold; inventory +32% vs +6% in cost of sales). Inventory is outrunning what's being sold — a flag for softening demand or obsolescence risk ahead.
2.6%
FY2025
Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is 2.6% in the latest fiscal year and slipping across FY2023–FY2025 from 6.0%. After-tax operating profit was $1.2B in FY2023 and $534M in FY2025, with operating income at 9.8% of revenue in FY2023, 5.6% in FY2024 and 6.8% in FY2025. The capital base behind it went from $19.2B in FY2023 to $20.2B in FY2025 (+5%), while the revenue it carried went from $13.7B to $12.1B.
FCF ($535M)
FY2025
Shareholder returns.Returned $280M to shareholders (buybacks + dividends) in FY2025, but free cash flow was ($535M) after capex — there was no free cash flow to fund the payout from at all, though operating cash flow alone was $825M — 34% of that. Capex and the payout together ran $815M past operating cash flow — a harder case than returns merely running ahead of free cash flow, since here there was none to run ahead of. New debt covered it: total debt rose $916M over FY2025, while cash rose $4M.
$100M
FY2025
Goodwill impairments.Took $100M of goodwill writedowns across 1 year (FY2025 ($100M)) — about 18% of net income over the span. A large writedown means an acquisition turned out worth far less than was paid — a real mark against M&A discipline.
-20%
FY2023→FY2024
Dividend — cut.The payout was CUT ~20% in FY2024 (from FY2023). It still returns some cash, but it is NOT the dependable, rising dividend an unbroken streak implies.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$12.05B
Revenue Growth YoY+8.4%
Revenue CAGR (2yr)-6.2%
Net Margin4.5%
Free Cash Flow-$534.6M
Return on Equity4.6%
Debt / Equity0.36x
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from Mosaic Co's actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?