Mosaic Co (MOS) Stock — Forensic Analysis, Red Flags & Rating | Stockonomy · Stockonomy
Forensic Analysis · Materials / Mining & Chemicals · as of Sep 24, 2026
Mosaic Co (MOS)
A forensic read on Mosaic Co built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
C · Mixed — selective
Forensic grade
Safe
Financial health
3.1
Distress distance
Clean
Earnings quality
5
Forensic signals
122.4
P / E (ttm)
4.5%
ROE
$7.7B
Market cap
2.20%
Dividend yield
8.4%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (red flags, auditor quality, say on pay, board independence, going concern, valuation). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
Mosaic Co earns a C (Mixed — selective) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 3.1, placing it in the Safe zone. 5 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by inventory days.
What the filings flag
106d
FY2024→FY2025
Inventory days.Days inventory outstanding moved from 96 to 106 FY2024→FY2025 (against cost of goods sold; inventory +32% vs +6% in cost of sales). Inventory is outrunning what's being sold — a flag for softening demand or obsolescence risk ahead.
2.5%
FY2025
Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is 2.5% in the latest fiscal year and slipping across FY2023–FY2025 from 6%. The capital base behind it barely moved across FY2023–FY2025 ($19.2B to $21.0B, +9%), so there has been little new capital for that return to be earned on.
FCF ($535M)
FY2025
Shareholder returns.Returned $280M to shareholders (buybacks + dividends) in FY2025, but free cash flow was ($535M) after capex — there was no free cash flow to fund the payout from at all, though operating cash flow alone was $825M — 34% of that. The entire return is coming from debt or cash reserves, not cash the business itself generated — a harder case than returns merely running ahead of free cash flow, since here there was none to run ahead of.
$100M
FY2025–FY2025
Goodwill impairments.Took $100M of goodwill writedowns across 1 year (FY2025 ($100M)) — about 18% of net income over the span. A large writedown means an acquisition turned out worth far less than was paid — a real mark against M&A discipline.
-20%
FY2023→FY2024
Dividend — cut.The payout was CUT ~20% in FY2024 (from FY2023). It still returns some cash, but it is NOT the dependable, rising dividend an unbroken streak implies.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$12.05B
Revenue Growth YoY+8.4%
Revenue CAGR (2yr)-6.2%
Net Margin4.5%
Free Cash Flow-$534.6M
Return on Equity4.5%
Debt / Equity0.36x
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from Mosaic Co's actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?