Forensic Analysis · Healthcare / Pharmaceuticals / Biotech · as of Sep 25, 2026
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MDGL)
A forensic read on Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
D · Weak — demands caution
Forensic grade
Safe
Financial health
10.5
Distress distance
Clean
Earnings quality
3
Forensic signals
-41.2
P / E (ttm)
-47.8%
ROE
$11.9B
Market cap
0.00%
Dividend yield
432.1%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (red flags, auditor quality, say on pay, board independence, going concern, valuation). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. earns a D (Weak — demands caution) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 10.5, placing it in the Safe zone. 3 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by return on invested capital.
What the filings flag
-31.6%
FY2025
Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is -31.6% in the latest fiscal year and rising across FY2023–FY2025 from -71.2%. After-tax operating profit was ($301M) in FY2023 and ($237M) in FY2025, with operating income at -276.4% of revenue in FY2024 and -31.3% in FY2025. The capital base behind it grew +78% across FY2023–FY2025, from $422M to $751M, and the return did not fall doing it, so the dollars added over that window earned at least the -71.2% the older base was already earning.
+9.6%/yr
FY2023–FY2025
Share-count dilution.Diluted share count changed +20% over the last 2 years to FY2025 (+9.6%/yr). The count is growing: more stock was issued than repurchased over this window, so aggregate results grew faster than their per-share equivalents. That's ~9.6% shaved off per-share growth every year — total profit has to grow that much just to keep earnings-per-share flat, and a stake held since FY2023 has been diluted ~17%.
10% of rev
FY2025
Stock-based comp load.Stock-based compensation ran 10% of revenue in FY2025 — about $4.37 per diluted share. No cash left the business to pay it, which is why operating cash flow adds it back. Net of repurchases the diluted count still rose about 9.6% a year, and the rate is falling. Stock compensation is one source of that issuance; acquisition consideration, equity raises, convertibles and other employee plans also net into the count, and these figures do not separate them.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$958.4M
Revenue Growth YoY+432.1%
Net Margin-30.1%
Free Cash Flow-$190.0M
Return on Equity-47.8%
Debt / Equity0.56x
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?