Forensic Analysis · Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology · as of Nov 8, 2026
Eli Lilly & Co (LLY)
A forensic read on Eli Lilly & Co built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
C · Mixed — selective
Forensic grade
Safe
Financial health
3.8
Distress distance
4
Forensic signals
101.2%
ROE
44.7%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (auditor quality, say on pay, board independence, going concern). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
Eli Lilly & Co earns a C (Mixed — selective) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 3.8, placing it in the Safe zone. 4 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by accruals ratio (% of NOA).
What the filings flag
+31.3%
FY2024→FY2025
Accruals ratio (% of NOA).Net operating assets grew +31.3% relative to their own average in FY2025 — scaled by NOA itself, not by total assets, which is what the Forensic Screens card's own accrual row divides by. Accruals are building sharply — a large slice of profit sits in operating assets, not cash. An accrual is a claim that still has to be collected or written down, so the gap resolves in a later period whichever way it goes. Net operating assets also rose $483.0M through acquisitions (increase in goodwill and intangibles); that purchase is investing and is excluded from this ratio. The build is led by inventory up +81% against +31% in cost of sales and receivables up +61% against revenue +45%. A cash-flow measure on the same base agrees: reported earnings ran ahead of operating cash by 7% of net operating assets, against an accruals ratio of 31.3%. The two are computed differently: the accruals ratio is the change in net operating assets over average net operating assets, while the cash-flow figure is net income less operating cash flow over that same average.Accruals ratio: the year-over-year change in net operating assets, relative to their own average.NOA (net operating assets): the money tied up in running the business, operating assets minus operating liabilities.
352d
FY2024→FY2025
Inventory days.Days inventory outstanding moved from 290 to 352 FY2024→FY2025 (against cost of goods sold; inventory +81% vs +31% in cost of sales). Inventory is outrunning what's being sold — a flag for softening demand or obsolescence risk ahead.
0.82×
FY2023–FY2025
Cash conversion.Over FY2023–FY2025, cumulative operating cash flow was 0.82× cumulative net income. Cash is lagging reported profit. The shortfall is profit tied up in working capital rather than collected — the accrual and receivables lines below show where.Cash conversion: operating cash flow divided by net income, the share of profit that arrived as cash.
106% of FCF
FY2025
Shareholder returns.Returned $9.5B to shareholders (buybacks + dividends) in FY2025 — 106% of free cash flow. That is $520M (6%) more than free cash flow covered. New debt covered it: total debt rose $8.9B over FY2025. That ratio has actually been EASING, not tightening further — down from ~608% of free cash flow two years back. Counting the $626M of stock-based comp paid out in shares on top of that, the combined claim on free cash flow is 113%.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$65.18B
Revenue Growth YoY+44.7%
Revenue CAGR (2yr)+38.2%
Net Margin31.7%
Free Cash Flow$8.97B
Return on Equity101.2%
Debt / Equity1.60x
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from Eli Lilly & Co's actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?