Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) Stock — Forensic Analysis, Red Flags & Rating | Stockonomy · Stockonomy
Forensic Analysis · Technology / Software · as of Sep 25, 2026
Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE)
A forensic read on Lumentum Holdings Inc. built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
D · Weak — demands caution
Forensic grade
Safe
Financial health
11.1
Distress distance
Clean
Earnings quality
4
Forensic signals
-10.0
P / E (ttm)
-149.3%
ROE
$84.0B
Market cap
0.00%
Dividend yield
83.2%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (red flags, auditor quality, say on pay, board independence, going concern, valuation). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
Lumentum Holdings Inc. earns a D (Weak — demands caution) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 11.1, placing it in the Safe zone. 4 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by share-count dilution.
What the filings flag
+5.3%/yr
FY2024–FY2026
Share-count dilution.Diluted share count changed +11% over the last 2 years to FY2026 (+5.3%/yr). The count is growing: more stock was issued than repurchased over this window, so aggregate results grew faster than their per-share equivalents. That's ~5.3% shaved off per-share growth every year — total profit has to grow that much just to keep earnings-per-share flat, and a stake held since FY2024 has been diluted ~10%.
6% of rev
FY2026
Stock-based comp load.Stock-based compensation ran 6% of revenue and 57% of free cash flow in FY2026 — about $2.28 per diluted share. No cash left the business to pay it, which is why operating cash flow adds it back. Net of repurchases the diluted count still rose about 5.3% a year and that rate is not falling, so total profit has to grow by that much annually before any of it reaches a share. Stock compensation is one source of that issuance; acquisition consideration, equity raises, convertibles and other employee plans also net into the count, and these figures do not separate them.
+28.3%
FY2025→FY2026
Accruals ratio (% of NOA).Net operating assets grew +28.3% relative to their own average in FY2026 — scaled by NOA itself, not by total assets, which is what the Forensic Screens card's own accrual row divides by. Accruals are building sharply, and much of it is accounted for. The build is led by inventory up +47% against +48% in cost of sales. That build tracks a +83% revenue year: net operating assets grew +33%, so the balance sheet is carrying more volume rather than getting heavier per dollar of sales — the accrual build is funding demand the company is shipping, not earnings running ahead of collection. A cash-flow measure on the same base disagrees: reported earnings ran behind operating cash by 207% of net operating assets, against an accruals ratio of 28.3%. The two are computed differently: the accruals ratio is the change in net operating assets over average net operating assets, while the cash-flow figure is net income less operating cash flow over that same average. Read them as two results, not one.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$3.01B
Revenue Growth YoY+83.2%
Revenue CAGR (2yr)+49.1%
Net Margin-230.1%
Free Cash Flow$300.1M
Return on Equity-149.3%
Debt / Equity0.35x
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from Lumentum Holdings Inc.'s actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?
Data from SEC EDGAR public filings · metrics as of Sep 25, 2026. Forensic signals flag probability, not certainty.
9.5%
FY2026
Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is 9.5% in the latest fiscal year and rising across FY2024–FY2026 from -10.6%. After-tax operating profit was ($343M) in FY2024 and $415M in FY2026, with operating income at -31.9% of revenue in FY2024, -10.9% in FY2025 and 17.4% in FY2026. The capital base behind it grew +36% across FY2024–FY2026, from $3.2B to $4.4B, and the return did not fall doing it, so the dollars added over that window earned at least the -10.6% the older base was already earning. FY2024's operating profit carried a $73M restructuring charge that alone took about 1.8 points off that year's return, so about 1.8 of the 20.1-point rise across FY2024–FY2026 is that charge leaving the base year rather than the capital earning more. FY2025's operating profit carried a $23M restructuring charge and a $15M asset write-down that alone took about 0.9 points off that year's return; FY2025 sits between the two ends of FY2024–FY2026, so the charge shapes the path between them without moving the change across it.