Forensic Analysis · Professional & Commercial Services · as of Nov 8, 2026
Herc Holdings Inc (HRI)
A forensic read on Herc Holdings Inc built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
D · Weak — demands caution
Forensic grade
Distress
Financial health
0.4
Distress distance
Clean
Earnings quality
4
Forensic signals
0.1%
ROE
22.6%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (auditor quality, say on pay, board independence, going concern). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
Herc Holdings Inc earns a D (Weak — demands caution) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 0.4, placing it in the Distress zone. 4 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by return on invested capital.
What the filings flag
3.7%
FY2025
Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is 3.7% in the latest fiscal year and slipping across FY2023–FY2025 from 5.3%. After-tax operating profit was $347M in FY2023 and $375M in FY2025. The capital base behind it grew +56% across FY2023–FY2025, from $6.5B to $10.1B, while the return fell 1.6 points, so the dollars added over that window earned less than the 5.3% the older base was already earning. FY2025's operating profit carried a $6M asset write-down that alone took about 0.1 points off that year's return, so about 0.1 of the 1.6-point fall across FY2023–FY2025 is that charge landing in the latest year rather than the capital earning less. A non-cash write-down lowers the reported return in the year it lands.
+16.3%
FY2024→FY2025
Accruals ratio (% of NOA).Net operating assets grew +16.3% relative to their own average in FY2025 — scaled by NOA itself, not by total assets, which is what the Forensic Screens card's own accrual row divides by. Accruals are building faster than is comfortable — part of profit is sitting in the balance sheet rather than turning to cash. Net operating assets also rose $3.3B through acquisitions (increase in goodwill and intangibles); that purchase is investing and is excluded from this ratio. The build is led by receivables up +31% against revenue +23%. A cash-flow measure on the same base disagrees: reported earnings ran behind operating cash by 14% of net operating assets, against an accruals ratio of 16.3%. The two are computed differently: the accruals ratio is the change in net operating assets over average net operating assets, while the cash-flow figure is net income less operating cash flow over that same average. Read them as two results, not one.Accruals ratio: the year-over-year change in net operating assets, relative to their own average.NOA (net operating assets): the money tied up in running the business, operating assets minus operating liabilities.
+4.6%/yr
FY2023–FY2025
Share-count dilution.Diluted share count changed +9% over the last 2 years to FY2025 (+4.6%/yr). The count is growing — 28.7M shares in FY2023, 31.4M in FY2025: more stock was issued than repurchased over this window, so aggregate results grew faster than their per-share equivalents. That's ~4.6% shaved off per-share growth every year — total profit has to grow that much just to keep earnings-per-share flat, and a stake held since FY2023 has been diluted ~9%.
0.8% of rev
FY2025
Stock-based comp load.Stock-based compensation ran 0.8% of revenue and 4% of free cash flow in FY2025 — about $1.08 per diluted share. No cash left the business to pay it, which is why operating cash flow adds it back. Net of repurchases the diluted count still rose about 4.6% a year across FY2023–FY2025 and that rate is not falling, so total profit has to grow by that much annually before any of it reaches a share. Stock compensation is one source of that issuance; acquisition consideration, equity raises, convertibles and other employee plans also net into the count, and these figures do not separate them.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$4.38B
Revenue Growth YoY+22.6%
Revenue CAGR (2yr)+15.5%
Net Margin0.0%
Free Cash Flow$928.0M
Return on Equity0.1%
Debt / Equity4.13x
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from Herc Holdings Inc's actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?