Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC) Stock — Forensic Analysis, Red Flags & Rating | Stockonomy · Stockonomy
Forensic Analysis · Materials / Mining & Chemicals · as of Aug 11, 2026
Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC)
A forensic read on Warrior Met Coal, Inc. built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
D · Weak — demands caution
Forensic grade
Safe
Financial health
11.8
Distress distance
Clean
Earnings quality
6
Forensic signals
34.4
P / E (ttm)
2.7%
ROE
$5.0B
Market cap
0.36%
Dividend yield
-14.1%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (red flags, auditor quality, say on pay, board independence). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
Warrior Met Coal, Inc. earns a D (Weak — demands caution) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 11.8, placing it in the Safe zone. 6 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by return on invested capital.
What the filings flag
1.8%
FY2025
Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is 1.8% in the latest fiscal year and slipping from 63% — well below its ~8% cost of capital, so reinvested dollars may be destroying value, not building it.
FCF ($91M)
FY2025
Shareholder returns.Returned $18M to shareholders (buybacks + dividends) in FY2025, but free cash flow was ($91M) after capex — there was no free cash flow to fund the payout from at all, though operating cash flow alone was $229M — 8% of that. The entire return is coming from debt or cash reserves, not cash the business itself generated — a harder case than returns merely running ahead of free cash flow, since here there was none to run ahead of.
+13.0%
FY2024→FY2025
Accruals ratio (% of NOA).Net operating assets grew +13.0% relative to their own average in FY2025 — scaled by NOA itself, not total assets (see the Forensic Screens card's differently-scaled Sloan Accrual Ratio for that read). Accruals are building faster than is comfortable — part of profit is sitting in the balance sheet rather than turning to cash. The build is led by receivables up +29% against revenue -14% and inventory up +14% against -2% in cost of sales. This is the fourth straight fiscal year of building accruals — an even longer streak than the 3-year mark that already signals a materially stronger tell. The cash-flow cross-check is more mixed: reported earnings ran behind operating cash by 9% of net operating assets, diverging from the balance-sheet accrual read.
82d
FY2024→FY2025
Inventory days.Days inventory outstanding moved from 71 to 82 FY2024→FY2025 (against cost of goods sold; inventory +14% vs -2% in cost of sales). Inventory is building a little faster than sales — watch for markdowns.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$1.31B
Revenue Growth YoY-14.1%
Revenue CAGR (3yr)-9.0%
Net Margin4.4%
Free Cash Flow-$91.0M
Return on Equity2.7%
Debt / Equity0.07x
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from Warrior Met Coal, Inc.'s actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?
Data from SEC EDGAR public filings · metrics as of Aug 11, 2026. Forensic signals flag probability, not certainty.
+0.6%/yr
FY2022–FY2025
Share count.Diluted share count changed +2% over the last 3 years to FY2025 (+0.6%/yr). Roughly flat — the count is neither shrinking nor growing meaningfully. Per-share value isn't being meaningfully helped or hurt by the count.
-96%
FY2019→FY2020
Dividend — cut.The payout was CUT ~96% in FY2020 (from FY2019) and hasn't been restored since. It still returns some cash, but it is NOT the dependable, rising dividend an unbroken streak implies.