Forensic Analysis · Coal Mining · as of Nov 8, 2026
Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC)
A forensic read on Warrior Met Coal, Inc. built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
B · Sound & dependable
Forensic grade
Safe
Financial health
7.2
Distress distance
Clean
Earnings quality
5
Forensic signals
2.7%
ROE
-14.1%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (auditor quality, say on pay, board independence, going concern). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
Warrior Met Coal, Inc. earns a B (Sound & dependable) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 7.2, placing it in the Safe zone. 5 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by return on invested capital.
What the filings flag
2.0%
FY2025
Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is 2.0% in the latest fiscal year and slipping across FY2023–FY2025 from 31.9%. After-tax operating profit was $470M in FY2023 and $41M in FY2025, with operating income at 32.3% of revenue in FY2023, 16.7% in FY2024 and 3.5% in FY2025. The capital base behind it grew +41% across FY2023–FY2025, from $1.5B to $2.1B, while the return fell 29.9 points, so the dollars added over that window earned less than the 31.9% the older base was already earning.
FCF ($91M)
FY2025
Shareholder returns.Returned $18M to shareholders (buybacks + dividends) in FY2025, but free cash flow was ($91M) after capex — there was no free cash flow to fund the payout from at all, though operating cash flow alone was $229M — 8% of that. Capex and the payout together ran $109M past operating cash flow — a harder case than returns merely running ahead of free cash flow, since here there was none to run ahead of. The balance sheet covered it: cash fell $192M and total debt rose $640,000 over FY2025.
+13.0%
FY2024→FY2025
Accruals ratio (% of NOA).Net operating assets grew +13.0% relative to their own average in FY2025 — scaled by NOA itself, not by total assets, which is what the Forensic Screens card's own accrual row divides by. Accruals are building faster than is comfortable — part of profit is sitting in the balance sheet rather than turning to cash. The build is led by receivables up +29% against revenue -14% and PP&E up +17% against revenue -14%. A cash-flow measure on the same base disagrees: reported earnings ran behind operating cash by 9% of net operating assets, against an accruals ratio of 13.0%. The two are computed differently: the accruals ratio is the change in net operating assets over average net operating assets, while the cash-flow figure is net income less operating cash flow over that same average. Read them as two results, not one.Accruals ratio: the year-over-year change in net operating assets, relative to their own average.NOA (net operating assets): the money tied up in running the business, operating assets minus operating liabilities.
82d
FY2024→FY2025
Inventory days.Days inventory outstanding moved from 71 to 82 FY2024→FY2025 (against cost of goods sold; inventory +14% vs -2% in cost of sales). Inventory is building a little faster than sales — watch for markdowns.
-60%
FY2024→FY2025
Dividend — cut.The payout was CUT ~60% in FY2025 (from FY2024). It still returns some cash, but it is NOT the dependable, rising dividend an unbroken streak implies.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$1.31B
Revenue Growth YoY-14.1%
Revenue CAGR (2yr)-11.6%
Net Margin4.4%
Free Cash Flow-$91.0M
Return on Equity2.7%
Debt / Equity0.07x
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from Warrior Met Coal, Inc.'s actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?