Forensic Analysis · Healthcare / Pharmaceuticals / Biotech · as of Jun 27, 2026
GRAIL, Inc. (GRAL)
A forensic read on GRAIL, Inc. built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
D · Weak — demands caution
Forensic grade
Distress
Financial health
-2.9
Altman Z-score
Clean
Earnings quality
4
Forensic signals
-16.4%
ROE
$2.8B
Market cap
GRAIL, Inc. earns a D (Weak — demands caution) forensic quality grade, and its Altman Z-score is -2.9, placing it in the Distress zone. 4 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by return on invested capital.
What the filings flag
-17%Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is -17% and rising from -33% — well below its ~10% cost of capital, so reinvested dollars may be destroying value, not building it.
+9.2%/yrShare-count dilution.Diluted share count changed +18% over the last 2 years to FY2025 (+9.2%/yr). The count is GROWING — existing holders are being diluted. That's ~9.2% shaved off per-share growth every year — total profit has to grow that much just to keep earnings-per-share flat, and a stake held since FY2023 has been diluted ~18%.
40% of revStock-based comp load.Stock-based compensation ran 40% of revenue in FY2025 — about $1.59 per diluted share. Meaningful — reported free cash flow flatters the economics, since SBC is a real cost paid in shares.
$1.5BGoodwill impairments.Took $1.5B of goodwill writedowns across 2 year(s) (FY2023 ($608M), FY2024 ($889M)). Writedowns mean past acquisitions underperformed what was paid for them — worth weighing on capital-allocation skill.
Key fundamentals
Net Margin-277.5%
Free Cash Flow$-299.9M
Latest Revenue$147.2M
Return on Equity-15.8%
Revenue Growth YoY+17.2%
Go deeper — free with an account
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. An account adds the full interactive deep-dive on GRAIL, Inc.:
🔒The written investment read — what the numbers mean, in plain English
🔒Ask anything about GRAL's filings — AI Q&A across the 10-K, 10-Qs & 8-Ks
🔒Interactive valuation — reverse-DCF sliders, Monte Carlo & scenario stress
🔒Calibrated 12-month price forecast, with the math shown