Forensic Analysis · Retail / Consumer Discretionary · as of Jun 27, 2026
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (GO)
A forensic read on Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
C · Mixed — selective
Forensic grade
Distress
Financial health
0.5
Altman Z-score
Clean
Earnings quality
5
Forensic signals
-36.6%
ROE
$981M
Market cap
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. earns a C (Mixed — selective) forensic quality grade, and its Altman Z-score is 0.5, placing it in the Distress zone. 5 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by return on invested capital.
What the filings flag
-7%Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is -7% and slipping from 3% — well below its ~9% cost of capital, so reinvested dollars may be destroying value, not building it.
0% of revStock-based comp load.Stock-based compensation ran 0% of revenue and 44% of free cash flow in FY2026 — about $0.11 per diluted share. Heavy — a large slice of 'free cash flow' is really being paid out in stock, so the true owner cash per share is well below the headline.
stoppedShareholder returns — halted.Capital returns have STOPPED — $81M of buybacks + dividends in FY2024, but ~$0 in FY2026. A halt usually means the company is conserving cash; understand why before reading it as neutral.
suspendedDividend — suspended.The dividend has been SUSPENDED — $15,000 paid in FY2023, then $0 in FY2026. A suspension is a major signal the board is conserving cash; the prior payment history doesn't offset it.
$149MGoodwill impairments.Took $149M of goodwill writedowns across 1 year(s) (FY2026 ($149M)). Writedowns mean past acquisitions underperformed what was paid for them — worth weighing on capital-allocation skill.
Key fundamentals
Net Margin-4.8%
Debt / Equity0.50x
Free Cash Flow$23.8M
Latest Revenue$4.69B
Return on Equity-22.9%
Revenue Growth YoY+7.3%
Go deeper — free with an account
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. An account adds the full interactive deep-dive on Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.:
🔒The written investment read — what the numbers mean, in plain English
🔒Ask anything about GO's filings — AI Q&A across the 10-K, 10-Qs & 8-Ks
🔒Interactive valuation — reverse-DCF sliders, Monte Carlo & scenario stress
🔒Calibrated 12-month price forecast, with the math shown