Forensic Analysis · Grocery & Drugstore · as of Nov 11, 2026
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (GO)
A forensic read on Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
D · Weak — demands caution
Forensic grade
Distress
Financial health
0.5
Distress distance
Clean
Earnings quality
3
Forensic signals
-20.6%
ROE
7.3%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (auditor quality, say on pay, board independence, going concern). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. earns a D (Weak — demands caution) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 0.5, placing it in the Distress zone. 3 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by return on invested capital.
What the filings flag
-6.4%
FY2025
Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is -6.4% in the latest fiscal year and slipping across FY2023–FY2025 from 3.9%. After-tax operating profit was $96M in FY2023 and ($175M) in FY2025, with operating income at 3.2% of revenue in FY2023, 1.8% in FY2024 and -4.7% in FY2025. The capital base behind it grew +10% across FY2023–FY2025, from $2.5B to $2.7B, while the return fell 10.3 points, so the dollars added over that window earned less than the 3.9% the older base was already earning. FY2025's operating profit carried a $149M goodwill write-off, a $122M asset write-down and a $46M restructuring charge that alone took about 9.2 points off that year's return, so about 9.2 of the 10.3-point fall across FY2023–FY2025 is that charge landing in the latest year rather than the capital earning less. FY2024's operating profit carried a $16M restructuring charge that alone took about 0.4 points off that year's return; FY2024 sits between the two ends of FY2023–FY2025, so the charge shapes the path between them without moving the change across it. A non-cash write-down lowers the reported return in the year it lands.
stopped
FY2024→FY2025
Shareholder returns — halted.Capital returns have STOPPED — $81M of buybacks + dividends in FY2024, but ~$0 in FY2025. A halt usually means the company is conserving cash.
$149M
FY2025
Goodwill impairments.Took $149M of goodwill writedowns across 1 year (FY2025 ($149M)). Writedowns mean past acquisitions underperformed what was paid for them.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$4.69B
Revenue Growth YoY+7.3%
Revenue CAGR (2yr)+8.7%
Net Margin-4.8%
Free Cash Flow$1.8M
Return on Equity-20.6%
Debt / Equity0.50x
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.'s actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?