Forensic Analysis · Homebuilders & Residential Construction · as of Nov 8, 2026
Geo Group Inc (GEO)
A forensic read on Geo Group Inc built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
B · Sound & dependable
Forensic grade
Grey Zone
Financial health
2.0
Distress distance
4
Forensic signals
17.9%
ROE
8.6%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (auditor quality, say on pay, board independence, going concern). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
Geo Group Inc earns a B (Sound & dependable) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 2.0, placing it in the Grey zone. 4 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by return on invested capital.
What the filings flag
5.8%
FY2025
Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is 5.8% in the latest fiscal year and slipping across FY2023–FY2025 from 8.1%. After-tax operating profit was $262M in FY2023 and $192M in FY2025, with operating income at 14.6% of revenue in FY2023, 12.8% in FY2024 and 9.8% in FY2025. The capital base behind it went from $3.2B in FY2023 to $3.3B in FY2025 (+3%), while the revenue it carried went from $2.4B to $2.6B.
+6.3%/yr
FY2023–FY2025
Share-count dilution.Diluted share count changed +13% over the last 2 years to FY2025 (+6.3%/yr). The count is growing — 123.7M shares in FY2023, 139.7M in FY2025: more stock was issued than repurchased over this window, so aggregate results grew faster than their per-share equivalents. That's ~6.3% shaved off per-share growth every year — total profit has to grow that much just to keep earnings-per-share flat, and a stake held since FY2023 has been diluted ~11%.
FCF ($125M)
FY2025
Shareholder returns.Returned $91M to shareholders (buybacks + dividends) in FY2025, but free cash flow was ($125M) after capex — there was no free cash flow to fund the payout from at all, though operating cash flow alone was $73M — 125% of that. The entire return is coming from debt or cash reserves, not cash the business itself generated — a harder case than returns merely running ahead of free cash flow, since here there was none to run ahead of.
0.9% of rev
FY2025
Stock-based comp load.Stock-based compensation ran 0.9% of revenue in FY2025 — about $0.17 per diluted share. No cash left the business to pay it, which is why operating cash flow adds it back. Net of repurchases the diluted count still rose about 6.3% a year across FY2023–FY2025, and the rate is falling. Stock compensation is one source of that issuance; acquisition consideration, equity raises, convertibles and other employee plans also net into the count, and these figures do not separate them.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$2.63B
Revenue Growth YoY+8.6%
Revenue CAGR (2yr)+4.4%
Net Margin9.7%
Free Cash Flow-$124.9M
Return on Equity17.9%
Debt / Equity1.10x
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from Geo Group Inc's actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?