Geo Group Inc (GEO) Stock — Forensic Analysis, Red Flags & Rating | Stockonomy · Stockonomy
Forensic Analysis · Industrials / Manufacturing / Defense · as of Aug 10, 2026
Geo Group Inc (GEO)
A forensic read on Geo Group Inc built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
C · Mixed — selective
Forensic grade
Safe
Financial health
3.2
Distress distance
Clean
Earnings quality
6
Forensic signals
15.2
P / E (ttm)
16.9%
ROE
$4.1B
Market cap
8.6%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (red flags, auditor quality, say on pay, board independence). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
Geo Group Inc earns a C (Mixed — selective) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 3.2, placing it in the Safe zone. 6 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by return on invested capital.
What the filings flag
5.6%
FY2025
Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is 5.6% in the latest fiscal year and slipping from 9% — well below its ~9% cost of capital, so reinvested dollars may be destroying value, not building it.
+4.5%/yr
FY2022–FY2025
Share-count dilution.Diluted share count changed +14% over the last 3 years to FY2025 (+4.5%/yr). The count is growing: more stock was issued than repurchased over this window, so aggregate results grew faster than their per-share equivalents. That's ~4.5% shaved off per-share growth every year — total profit has to grow that much just to keep earnings-per-share flat, and a stake held since FY2022 has been diluted ~12%.
FCF ($125M)
FY2025
Shareholder returns.Returned $91M to shareholders (buybacks + dividends) in FY2025, but free cash flow was ($125M) after capex — there was no free cash flow to fund the payout from at all, though operating cash flow alone was $73M — 125% of that. The entire return is coming from debt or cash reserves, not cash the business itself generated — a harder case than returns merely running ahead of free cash flow, since here there was none to run ahead of.
0.9% of rev
FY2025
Stock-based comp load.Stock-based compensation ran 0.9% of revenue in FY2025 — about $0.17 per diluted share. The cost of it is not in the cash flow — no cash left the business — it is in the count, and there it has run at about 4.6% a year and is falling.
$21M
FY2020–FY2020
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$2.63B
Revenue Growth YoY+8.6%
Revenue CAGR (3yr)+3.5%
Net Margin9.7%
Free Cash Flow-$124.9M
Return on Equity16.9%
Debt / Equity1.10x
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from Geo Group Inc's actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?
Data from SEC EDGAR public filings · metrics as of Aug 10, 2026. Forensic signals flag probability, not certainty.
Goodwill impairments.Took $21M of goodwill writedowns across 1 year (FY2020 ($21M)) — about 19% of net income over the span. Writedowns mean past acquisitions underperformed what was paid for them.
-86%
FY2020→FY2021
Dividend — cut.The payout was CUT ~86% in FY2021 (from FY2020) and hasn't been restored since. It still returns some cash, but it is NOT the dependable, rising dividend an unbroken streak implies.