Global Business Travel Group, Inc. (GBTG) Stock — Forensic Analysis, Red Flags & Rating | Stockonomy · Stockonomy
Forensic Analysis · Transportation / Logistics · as of Sep 24, 2026
Global Business Travel Group, Inc. (GBTG)
A forensic read on Global Business Travel Group, Inc. built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
D · Weak — demands caution
Forensic grade
Distress
Financial health
1.1
Distress distance
Clean
Earnings quality
5
Forensic signals
56.2
P / E (ttm)
6.8%
ROE
$4.9B
Market cap
12.2%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (red flags, auditor quality, say on pay, board independence, going concern, valuation). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
Global Business Travel Group, Inc. earns a D (Weak — demands caution) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 1.1, placing it in the Distress zone. 5 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by accruals ratio (% of noa).
What the filings flag
+32.5%
FY2024→FY2025
Accruals ratio (% of NOA).Net operating assets grew +32.5% relative to their own average in FY2025 — scaled by NOA itself, not by total assets, which is what the Forensic Screens card's own accrual row divides by. Accruals are building sharply — a large slice of profit sits in operating assets, not cash. An accrual is a claim that still has to be collected or written down, so the gap resolves in a later period whichever way it goes. The build is led by receivables up +52% against revenue +12%. A cash-flow measure on the same base disagrees: reported earnings ran behind operating cash by 5% of net operating assets, against an accruals ratio of 32.5%. The two are computed differently: the accruals ratio is the change in net operating assets over average net operating assets, while the cash-flow figure is net income less operating cash flow over that same average. Read them as two results, not one.
3.0%
FY2025
Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is 3.0% in the latest fiscal year and rising across FY2023–FY2025 from -0.3%. The capital base behind it grew +29% across FY2023–FY2025, from $2.5B to $3.2B, and the return did not fall doing it, so the dollars added over that window earned at least the -0.3% the older base was already earning.
+3.7%/yr
FY2023–FY2025
Share-count dilution.Diluted share count changed +8% over the last 2 years to FY2025 (+3.7%/yr). The count is growing: more stock was issued than repurchased over this window, so aggregate results grew faster than their per-share equivalents. That's ~3.7% shaved off per-share growth every year — total profit has to grow that much just to keep earnings-per-share flat, and a stake held since FY2023 has been diluted ~7%.
3% of rev
FY2025
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$2.72B
Revenue Growth YoY+12.2%
Revenue CAGR (2yr)+8.9%
Net Margin4.0%
Free Cash Flow$104.0M
Return on Equity6.8%
Debt / Equity0.88x
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from Global Business Travel Group, Inc.'s actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?
Data from SEC EDGAR public filings · metrics as of Sep 24, 2026. Forensic signals flag probability, not certainty.
Stock-based comp load.
Stock-based compensation ran 3% of revenue and 73% of free cash flow in FY2025 — about $0.15 per diluted share. No cash left the business to pay it, which is why operating cash flow adds it back. Net of repurchases the diluted count still rose about 3.8% a year and that rate is not falling, so total profit has to grow by that much annually before any of it reaches a share. Stock compensation is one source of that issuance; acquisition consideration, equity raises, convertibles and other employee plans also net into the count, and these figures do not separate them.
117d DSO
FY2024→FY2025
Receivables vs revenue.Days sales outstanding moved from 86 to 117 days FY2024→FY2025 (receivables +52% vs revenue +12%). Receivables are creeping up relative to sales. Across FY2023–FY2025 the day count ran 116 → 86 → 117 days, so the latest reading sits on top of a record that was flat or falling before it — one year's move, not a direction the business has been travelling in. Deferred revenue was roughly flat (-26%) over the same period, which doesn't corroborate a benign upfront-billing explanation for the receivables build. Both figures are measured on period-end balances rather than the beginning-plus-ending average, because averaging needs the balance a year before every reading — FY2024's opening balance is on file, but across the 3 fiscal years read here (FY2023–FY2025) the average yields only 2 day counts (1 step), too few to tell a climb from one year's move.