Forensic Analysis · Transportation / Logistics · as of Aug 11, 2026
Global Business Travel Group, Inc. (GBTG)
A forensic read on Global Business Travel Group, Inc. built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
D · Weak — demands caution
Forensic grade
Distress
Financial health
1.1
Distress distance
Clean
Earnings quality
4
Forensic signals
58.8
P / E (ttm)
6.8%
ROE
$4.9B
Market cap
12.2%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (red flags, auditor quality, say on pay, board independence). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
Global Business Travel Group, Inc. earns a D (Weak — demands caution) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 1.1, placing it in the Distress zone. 4 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by accruals ratio (% of noa).
What the filings flag
+32.5%
FY2024→FY2025
Accruals ratio (% of NOA).Net operating assets grew +32.5% relative to their own average in FY2025 — scaled by NOA itself, not total assets (see the Forensic Screens card's differently-scaled Sloan Accrual Ratio for that read). Accruals are building sharply — a large slice of profit sits in operating assets, not cash; Richardson/Sloan link high accruals to weaker future returns as they reverse. The build is led by receivables up +52% against revenue +12%. The cash-flow cross-check is more mixed: reported earnings ran behind operating cash by 5% of net operating assets, diverging from the balance-sheet accrual read.
3.0%
FY2025
Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is 3.0% in the latest fiscal year and rising from -6% — well below its ~9% cost of capital, so reinvested dollars may be destroying value, not building it.
+3.4%/yr
FY2022–FY2025
Share-count dilution.Diluted share count changed +11% over the last 3 years to FY2025 (+3.4%/yr). The count is growing: more stock was issued than repurchased over this window, so aggregate results grew faster than their per-share equivalents. That's ~3.4% shaved off per-share growth every year — total profit has to grow that much just to keep earnings-per-share flat, and a stake held since FY2022 has been diluted ~10%.
3% of rev
FY2025
Stock-based comp load.Stock-based compensation ran 3% of revenue and 73% of free cash flow in FY2025 — about $0.15 per diluted share. The cost of it is not in the cash flow — no cash left the business — it is in the count: holders gave up about 3.4% of the company a year, and that rate is not falling. That is the figure to weigh, not the share of free cash flow.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$2.72B
Revenue Growth YoY+12.2%
Revenue CAGR (3yr)+13.7%
Net Margin4.0%
Free Cash Flow$104.0M
Return on Equity6.8%
Debt / Equity0.88x
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from Global Business Travel Group, Inc.'s actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?