Forensic Analysis · Restaurants · as of Nov 8, 2026
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG)
A forensic read on First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
D · Weak — demands caution
Forensic grade
Distress
Financial health
0.2
Distress distance
Clean
Earnings quality
2
Forensic signals
3.2%
ROE
20.3%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (auditor quality, say on pay, board independence, going concern). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. earns a D (Weak — demands caution) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 0.2, placing it in the Distress zone. 2 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by return on invested capital.
What the filings flag
1.7%
FY2025
Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is 1.7% in the latest fiscal year and steady across FY2023–FY2025, inside a 0.9-point range. After-tax operating profit was $29M in FY2023 and $25M in FY2025, with operating income at 4.6% of revenue in FY2023, 3.8% in FY2024 and 2.3% in FY2025. The capital base behind it grew +32% across FY2023–FY2025, from $1.1B to $1.5B, while the return fell 0.9 points, so the dollars added over that window earned less than the 2.6% the older base was already earning.
+11.9%
FY2024→FY2025
Accruals ratio (% of NOA).Net operating assets grew +11.9% relative to their own average in FY2025 — scaled by NOA itself, not by total assets, which is what the Forensic Screens card's own accrual row divides by. Accruals are building faster than is comfortable — part of profit is sitting in the balance sheet rather than turning to cash. Net operating assets also rose $29.0M through acquisitions (increase in goodwill and intangibles); that purchase is investing and is excluded from this ratio. The build is led by PP&E up +32% against revenue +20% and inventory up +17% against +20% in revenue. A cash-flow measure on the same base disagrees: reported earnings ran behind operating cash by 13% of net operating assets, against an accruals ratio of 11.9%. The two are computed differently: the accruals ratio is the change in net operating assets over average net operating assets, while the cash-flow figure is net income less operating cash flow over that same average. Read them as two results, not one.Accruals ratio: the year-over-year change in net operating assets, relative to their own average.NOA (net operating assets): the money tied up in running the business, operating assets minus operating liabilities.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$1.22B
Revenue Growth YoY+20.3%
Revenue CAGR (2yr)+17.1%
Net Margin1.6%
Free Cash Flow-$31.0M
Return on Equity3.2%
Debt / Equity0.45x
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.'s actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?