Fossil Group, Inc. (FOSL) Stock — Forensic Analysis, Red Flags & Rating | Stockonomy · Stockonomy
Forensic Analysis · General / Diversified · as of Jun 28, 2026
Fossil Group, Inc. (FOSL)
A forensic read on Fossil Group, Inc. built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
F · Poor — capital at risk
Forensic grade
Distress
Financial health
0.8
Altman Z-score
Clean
Earnings quality
3
Forensic signals
-52.9%
ROE
$258M
Market cap
Fossil Group, Inc. earns a F (Poor — capital at risk) forensic quality grade, and its Altman Z-score is 0.8, placing it in the Distress zone. 3 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by return on invested capital.
What the filings flag
-5%Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is -5% and slipping from -0% — well below its ~9% cost of capital, so reinvested dollars may be destroying value, not building it.
+1.1%/yrShare-count dilution.Diluted share count changed +4% over the last 4 years to FY2026 (+1.1%/yr). The count is GROWING — existing holders are being diluted. That's ~1.1% shaved off per-share growth every year — total profit has to grow that much just to keep earnings-per-share flat, and a stake held since FY2022 has been diluted ~4%.
126dInventory days.Days inventory outstanding moved from 119 to 126 FY2024→FY2026 (against cost of goods sold; inventory -15% vs -19% in cost of sales). Inventory is building a little faster than sales — watch for markdowns.
Key fundamentals
Net Margin-7.7%
Debt / Equity1.99x
Free Cash Flow$-60.5M
Latest Revenue$1.00B
Return on Equity-75.7%
Revenue Growth YoY-12.3%
Go deeper — free with an account
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. An account adds the full interactive deep-dive on Fossil Group, Inc.:
🔒The written investment read — what the numbers mean, in plain English
🔒Ask anything about FOSL's filings — AI Q&A across the 10-K, 10-Qs & 8-Ks
🔒Interactive valuation — reverse-DCF sliders, Monte Carlo & scenario stress
🔒Calibrated 12-month price forecast, with the math shown