Forensic Analysis · General / Diversified · as of Aug 12, 2026
Fossil Group, Inc. (FOSL)
A forensic read on Fossil Group, Inc. built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
D · Weak — demands caution
Forensic grade
Grey Zone
Financial health
1.2
Distress distance
Clean
Earnings quality
4
Forensic signals
-4.7
P / E (ttm)
-76.1%
ROE
$310M
Market cap
0.00%
Dividend yield
-12.3%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (red flags, auditor quality, say on pay, board independence). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
Fossil Group, Inc. earns a D (Weak — demands caution) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 1.2, placing it in the Grey zone. 4 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by return on invested capital.
What the filings flag
-5.1%
FY2026
Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is -5.1% in the latest fiscal year and slipping from -0% — well below its ~9% cost of capital, so reinvested dollars may be destroying value, not building it.
+1.1%/yr
FY2022–FY2026
Share-count dilution.Diluted share count changed +4% over the last 4 years to FY2026 (+1.1%/yr). A change of direction: the count shrank over the full period (net -1.1%/yr since FY2011) but has grown across the recent window, so the two figures point opposite ways — read the recent window on totals versus per-share, since the full-period rate no longer describes what the count is doing now. That's ~1.1% shaved off per-share growth every year — total profit has to grow that much just to keep earnings-per-share flat, and a stake held since FY2022 has been diluted ~4%.
FCF ($60M)
FY2026
Shareholder returns.Returned $164,000 to shareholders (buybacks + dividends) in FY2026, but free cash flow was ($60M) after capex — there was no free cash flow to fund the payout from at all, and operating cash flow itself was negative or zero that year too. The entire return is coming from debt or cash reserves, not cash the business itself generated — a harder case than returns merely running ahead of free cash flow, since here there was none to run ahead of.
126d
FY2024→FY2026
Inventory days.Days inventory outstanding moved from 119 to 126 FY2024→FY2026 (against cost of goods sold; inventory -15% vs -19% in cost of sales). Inventory is building a little faster than sales — watch for markdowns. FY2024 and FY2026 aren't consecutive filed years here, so FY2026's opening balance can't be taken from FY2024 — both figures are measured on period-end balances rather than the beginning-plus-ending average, which keeps the two endpoints comparable to each other.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$1.00B
Revenue Growth YoY-12.3%
Net Margin-7.8%
Free Cash Flow-$60.5M
Return on Equity-76.1%
Debt / Equity1.99x
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from Fossil Group, Inc.'s actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?