Forensic Analysis · General / Diversified · as of Nov 11, 2026

Fossil Group, Inc. (FOSL)

A forensic read on Fossil Group, Inc. built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.

F · Poor — capital at risk

Forensic grade

Distress

Financial health

0.8

Distress distance

Clean

Earnings quality

Forensic signals

-62.3%

ROE

-12.3%

Revenue growth

This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (auditor quality, say on pay, board independence, going concern). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.

Fossil Group, Inc. earns an F (Poor — capital at risk) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 0.8, placing it in the Distress zone. 1 forensic signal was flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by return on invested capital.

What the filings flag

-4.9%

FY2025

Return on invested capital. Return on invested capital is -4.9% in the latest fiscal year and rising across FY2023–FY2025 from -21.8%. After-tax operating profit was ($113M) in FY2023 and ($15M) in FY2025, with operating income at -10.1% of revenue in FY2023, -9.1% in FY2024 and -1.9% in FY2025. The capital base behind it came down -41% across FY2023–FY2025, from $519M to $306M, so this return is struck on a smaller base than it started on. FY2023's operating profit carried a $43M restructuring charge and a $2M asset write-down that took about 6.9 points off that year's return, and FY2025's carried a $41M restructuring charge and a $2M asset write-down that took about 10.9 points off the latest; so, net of each other, the two charges take about 4.0 points off the +16.9-point change across FY2023–FY2025. FY2024's operating profit carried a $60M restructuring charge and a $3M asset write-down that alone took about 11.8 points off that year's return; FY2024 sits between the two ends of FY2023–FY2025, so the charge shapes the path between them without moving the change across it. A non-cash write-down lowers the reported return in the year it lands.

Key fundamentals

Latest Revenue$1.00B

Revenue Growth YoY-12.3%

Revenue CAGR (2yr)-15.7%

Net Margin-7.8%

Free Cash Flow-$60.5M

Return on Equity-62.3%

Debt / Equity1.99x

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Data from SEC EDGAR public filings · metrics as of Nov 11, 2026. Forensic signals flag probability, not certainty.

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