Forensic Analysis · Upstream Exploration & Production · as of Nov 8, 2026
Expand Energy Corp (EXE)
A forensic read on Expand Energy Corp built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
B · Sound & dependable
Forensic grade
Safe
Financial health
3.2
Distress distance
4
Forensic signals
10.1%
ROE
186.3%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (auditor quality, say on pay, board independence, going concern). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
Expand Energy Corp earns a B (Sound & dependable) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 3.2, placing it in the Safe zone. 4 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by share-count dilution.
What the filings flag
+29.7%/yr
FY2023–FY2025
Share-count dilution.Diluted share count changed +68% over the last 2 years to FY2025 (+29.7%/yr). The count is growing — 143.0M shares in FY2023, 240.4M in FY2025: more stock was issued than repurchased over this window, so aggregate results grew faster than their per-share equivalents. That's ~29.7% shaved off per-share growth every year — total profit has to grow that much just to keep earnings-per-share flat, and a stake held since FY2023 has been diluted ~41%.
0.4% of rev
FY2025
Stock-based comp load.Stock-based compensation ran 0.4% of revenue and 3% of free cash flow in FY2025 — about $0.19 per diluted share. No cash left the business to pay it, which is why operating cash flow adds it back. Net of repurchases the diluted count still rose about 29.7% a year across FY2023–FY2025 and that rate is not falling, so total profit has to grow by that much annually before any of it reaches a share. Stock compensation is one source of that issuance; acquisition consideration, equity raises, convertibles and other employee plans also net into the count, and these figures do not separate them.
7.9%
FY2025
Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is 7.9% in the latest fiscal year, against 20.3% in FY2023, having run between -3.4% and 20.3% across FY2023–FY2025 with no direction held. After-tax operating profit was $2.4B in FY2023 and $2.0B in FY2025, with operating income at 36.0% of revenue in FY2023, -19.0% in FY2024 and 20.4% in FY2025. The capital base behind it grew +107% across FY2023–FY2025, from $12.0B to $24.8B, while the return fell 12.4 points, so the dollars added over that window earned less than the 20.3% the older base was already earning.
-27%
FY2023→FY2024
Dividend — cut.The payout was CUT ~27% in FY2024 (from FY2023). It still returns some cash, but it is NOT the dependable, rising dividend an unbroken streak implies.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$12.12B
Revenue Growth YoY+186.3%
Revenue CAGR (2yr)+17.9%
Net Margin15.0%
Free Cash Flow$1.84B
Return on Equity10.1%
Debt / Equity0.27x
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from Expand Energy Corp's actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?