Forensic Analysis · Energy / Oil & Gas · as of Aug 11, 2026
Expand Energy Corp (EXE)
A forensic read on Expand Energy Corp built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
C · Mixed — selective
Forensic grade
Safe
Financial health
3.6
Distress distance
Clean
Earnings quality
4
Forensic signals
7.7
P / E (ttm)
9.8%
ROE
$22.5B
Market cap
2.50%
Dividend yield
186.3%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (red flags, auditor quality, say on pay, board independence). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
Expand Energy Corp earns a C (Mixed — selective) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 3.6, placing it in the Safe zone. 4 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by share-count dilution.
What the filings flag
+18.1%/yr
FY2022–FY2025
Share-count dilution.Diluted share count changed +65% over the last 3 years to FY2025 (+18.1%/yr). The count is growing: more stock was issued than repurchased over this window, so aggregate results grew faster than their per-share equivalents. Note: the share count shows a large one-time jump around FY2018, consistent with a reverse split or bankruptcy reorg rather than gradual buybacks, so the earlier shrinkage doesn't reflect real repurchase discipline. That's ~18.1% shaved off per-share growth every year — total profit has to grow that much just to keep earnings-per-share flat, and a stake held since FY2022 has been diluted ~39%.
0.4% of rev
FY2025
Stock-based comp load.Stock-based compensation ran 0.4% of revenue and 3% of free cash flow in FY2025 — about $0.19 per diluted share. The cost of it is not in the cash flow — no cash left the business — it is in the count: holders gave up about 20.3% of the company a year, and that rate is not falling. That is the figure to weigh, not the share of free cash flow.
8.0%
FY2025
Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is 8.0% in the latest fiscal year and slipping from 27% — around its ~8% cost of capital, so growth is roughly value-neutral.
-60%
FY2022→FY2023
Dividend — cut.The payout was CUT ~60% in FY2023 (from FY2022) and hasn't been restored since. It still returns some cash, but it is NOT the dependable, rising dividend an unbroken streak implies. Measured on total dividend dollars rather than per share: the reported share count steps sharply around FY2022, a stock-split seam between filing vintages rather than a change in the payout, and a split leaves the dollars paid untouched.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$12.12B
Revenue Growth YoY+186.3%
Revenue CAGR (3yr)+1.1%
Net Margin15.0%
Free Cash Flow$1.84B
Return on Equity9.8%
Debt / Equity0.27x
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from Expand Energy Corp's actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?