Forensic Analysis · Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology · as of Nov 11, 2026
Emergent BioSolutions Inc. (EBS)
A forensic read on Emergent BioSolutions Inc. built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
D · Weak — demands caution
Forensic grade
Safe
Financial health
3.4
Distress distance
Clean
Earnings quality
5
Forensic signals
10.5%
ROE
-28.8%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (auditor quality, say on pay, board independence, going concern). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
Emergent BioSolutions Inc. earns a D (Weak — demands caution) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 3.4, placing it in the Safe zone. 5 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by inventory days.
What the filings flag
367d
FY2024→FY2025
Inventory days.Days inventory outstanding moved from 172 to 367 FY2024→FY2025 (against cost of goods sold; inventory +10% vs -52% in cost of sales). Inventory is outrunning what's being sold — a flag for softening demand or obsolescence risk ahead.
6.2%
FY2025
Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is 6.2% in the latest fiscal year and rising across FY2023–FY2025 from -38.9%. After-tax operating profit was ($574M) in FY2023 and $65M in FY2025, with operating income at -69.2% of revenue in FY2023, -10.4% in FY2024 and 13.5% in FY2025. The capital base behind it cannot be compared across FY2023–FY2025: short-term debt is tagged in one of those two fiscal years and not the other, and an untagged line enters this calculation as zero, so any change in the base would be a change in what the filer tagged. FY2023's operating profit carried a $218M goodwill write-off and a $29M restructuring charge that alone took about 13.3 points off that year's return, so about 13.3 of the 45.1-point rise across FY2023–FY2025 is that charge leaving the base year rather than the capital earning more. A non-cash write-down lowers the reported return in the year it lands.
+5.2%/yr
FY2023–FY2025
Share-count dilution.Diluted share count changed +11% over the last 2 years to FY2025 (+5.2%/yr). The count is growing — 51.2M shares in FY2023, 56.7M in FY2025: more stock was issued than repurchased over this window, so aggregate results grew faster than their per-share equivalents. That's ~5.2% shaved off per-share growth every year — total profit has to grow that much just to keep earnings-per-share flat, and a stake held since FY2023 has been diluted ~10%.
2% of rev
FY2025
Stock-based comp load.Stock-based compensation ran 2% of revenue and 10% of free cash flow in FY2025 — about $0.29 per diluted share. No cash left the business to pay it, which is why operating cash flow adds it back. Net of repurchases the diluted count still rose about 5.2% a year across FY2023–FY2025 and that rate is not falling, so total profit has to grow by that much annually before any of it reaches a share. Stock compensation is one source of that issuance; acquisition consideration, equity raises, convertibles and other employee plans also net into the count, and these figures do not separate them.
$218M
FY2023
Goodwill impairments.Took $218M of goodwill writedowns across 1 year (FY2023 ($218M)). Writedowns mean past acquisitions underperformed what was paid for them.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$742.9M
Revenue Growth YoY-28.8%
Revenue CAGR (2yr)-15.9%
Net Margin7.1%
Free Cash Flow$156.8M
Return on Equity10.5%
Debt / Equity1.09x
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from Emergent BioSolutions Inc.'s actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?