Forensic Analysis · Retail / Consumer Discretionary · as of Nov 7, 2026
Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR)
A forensic read on Dollar Tree, Inc. built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
B · Sound & dependable
Forensic grade
Grey Zone
Financial health
2.3
Distress distance
Clean
Earnings quality
3
Forensic signals
33.2%
ROE
10.4%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (auditor quality, say on pay, board independence, going concern). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
Dollar Tree, Inc. earns a B (Sound & dependable) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 2.3, placing it in the Grey zone. 3 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by return on invested capital.
What the filings flag
12.9%
FY2026
Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is 12.9% in the latest fiscal year and rising across FY2024–FY2026 from 8.0%. After-tax operating profit was $1.4B in FY2024 and $1.2B in FY2026, with operating income at 10.6% of revenue in FY2024, 8.3% in FY2025 and 8.5% in FY2026. The capital base behind it came down -43% across FY2024–FY2026, from $16.9B to $9.7B, so this return is struck on a smaller base than it started on. FY2024's operating profit carried a $1.1B goodwill write-off and a $14M asset write-down that alone took about 4.9 points off that year's return, so about all of the 4.9-point rise across FY2024–FY2026 is that charge leaving the base year rather than the capital earning more. A non-cash write-down lowers the reported return in the year it lands.
146% of FCF
FY2026
Shareholder returns.Returned $1.5B to shareholders (buybacks + dividends) in FY2026 — 146% of free cash flow, but 71% of operating cash flow. Returns run ahead of free cash flow, with the gap funded by debt or cash reserves rather than the cash the business itself throws off; the payout itself is still covered by operating cash. Counting the $59M of stock-based comp paid out in shares on top of that, the combined claim on free cash flow is 152%.
$1.1B
FY2024
Goodwill impairments.Took $1.1B of goodwill writedowns across 1 year (FY2024 ($1.1B)). Writedowns mean past acquisitions underperformed what was paid for them.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$19.41B
Revenue Growth YoY+10.4%
Revenue CAGR (2yr)+7.6%
Net Margin6.6%
Free Cash Flow$1.06B
Return on Equity33.2%
Debt / Equity0.65x
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from Dollar Tree, Inc.'s actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?