Forensic Analysis · General / Diversified · as of Aug 11, 2026
Casella Waste Systems Inc (CWST)
A forensic read on Casella Waste Systems Inc built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
D · Weak — demands caution
Forensic grade
Safe
Financial health
3.6
Distress distance
Clean
Earnings quality
4
Forensic signals
779.1
P / E (ttm)
0.5%
ROE
$5.7B
Market cap
18.0%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (red flags, auditor quality, say on pay, board independence). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
Casella Waste Systems Inc earns a D (Weak — demands caution) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 3.6, placing it in the Safe zone. 4 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by return on invested capital.
What the filings flag
1.4%
FY2025
Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is 1.4% in the latest fiscal year and slipping from 6% — well below its ~9% cost of capital, so reinvested dollars may be destroying value, not building it.
+7.1%/yr
FY2022–FY2025
Share-count dilution.Diluted share count changed +23% over the last 3 years to FY2025 (+7.1%/yr). The count is growing: more stock was issued than repurchased over this window, so aggregate results grew faster than their per-share equivalents. That's ~7.1% shaved off per-share growth every year — total profit has to grow that much just to keep earnings-per-share flat, and a stake held since FY2022 has been diluted ~19%.
+11.1%
FY2024→FY2025
Accruals ratio (% of NOA).Net operating assets grew +11.1% relative to their own average in FY2025 — scaled by NOA itself, not total assets (see the Forensic Screens card's differently-scaled Sloan Accrual Ratio for that read). Accruals are building faster than is comfortable — part of profit is sitting in the balance sheet rather than turning to cash. This is the third straight fiscal year of building accruals — a multi-year streak is a materially stronger tell than a single year's move. The cash-flow cross-check is more mixed: reported earnings ran behind operating cash by 13% of net operating assets, diverging from the balance-sheet accrual read.
0.8% of rev
FY2025
Stock-based comp load.Stock-based compensation ran 0.8% of revenue and 17% of free cash flow in FY2025 — about $0.22 per diluted share. The cost of it is not in the cash flow — no cash left the business — it is in the count, and there it has run at about 7.1% a year and is falling.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$1.84B
Revenue Growth YoY+18.0%
Revenue CAGR (3yr)+19.2%
Net Margin0.4%
Free Cash Flow$84.7M
Return on Equity0.5%
Debt / Equity0.74x
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from Casella Waste Systems Inc's actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?