Forensic Analysis · Retail / Consumer Discretionary · as of Sep 17, 2026
Carvana Co. (CVNA)
A forensic read on Carvana Co. built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
C · Mixed — selective
Forensic grade
Safe
Financial health
12.0
Distress distance
Clean
Earnings quality
5
Forensic signals
45.7
P / E (ttm)
40.9%
ROE
$70.4B
Market cap
48.6%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (red flags, auditor quality, say on pay, board independence, going concern, valuation). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
Carvana Co. earns a C (Mixed — selective) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 12.0, placing it in the Safe zone. 5 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by shareholder returns.
What the filings flag
FCF ($558M)
FY2018
Shareholder returns.Returned $5M to shareholders (buybacks + dividends) in FY2018, but free cash flow was ($558M) after capex — there was no free cash flow to fund the payout from at all, and operating cash flow itself was negative or zero that year too. The entire return is coming from debt or cash reserves, not cash the business itself generated — a harder case than returns merely running ahead of free cash flow, since here there was none to run ahead of.
+28.0%
FY2024→FY2025
Accruals ratio (% of NOA).Net operating assets grew +28.0% relative to their own average in FY2025 — scaled by NOA itself, not by total assets, which is what the Forensic Screens card's own accrual row divides by. Accruals are building sharply, and much of it is accounted for. The build is led by inventory up +50% against +49% in cost of sales. That build tracks a +49% revenue year: net operating assets grew +33% and receivables -19%, so the balance sheet is carrying more volume rather than getting heavier per dollar of sales — the accrual build is funding demand the company is shipping, not earnings running ahead of collection. A cash-flow measure on the same base agrees: reported earnings ran ahead of operating cash by 6% of net operating assets, against an accruals ratio of 28.0%. The two are computed differently: the accruals ratio is the change in net operating assets over average net operating assets, while the cash-flow figure is net income less operating cash flow over that same average.
n/m (stock split)
FY2022–FY2025
Share count (stock split).Diluted share count changed +122% over the last 3 years to FY2025, but that includes a large one-time change around FY2023 consistent with a stock split or reverse split, not gradual buybacks or issuance — a split changes the count with NO effect on any holder's proportional ownership, so the raw +30.5%/yr figure isn't a real buyback/dilution read here.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$20.32B
Revenue Growth YoY+48.6%
Revenue CAGR (3yr)+14.3%
Net Margin6.9%
Free Cash Flow$889.0M
Return on Equity40.9%
Debt / Equity1.46x
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from Carvana Co.'s actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?
Data from SEC EDGAR public filings · metrics as of Sep 17, 2026. Forensic signals flag probability, not certainty.
0.5% of rev
FY2025
Stock-based comp load.Stock-based compensation ran 0.5% of revenue and 11% of free cash flow in FY2025 — about $0.43 per diluted share. No cash left the business to pay it, which is why operating cash flow adds it back. Net of repurchases the diluted count still rose about 5.0% a year, and the rate is falling. Stock compensation is one source of that issuance; acquisition consideration, equity raises, convertibles and other employee plans also net into the count, and these figures do not separate them.
$847M
FY2022–FY2022
Goodwill impairments.Took $847M of goodwill writedowns across 1 year (FY2022 ($847M)). Writedowns mean past acquisitions underperformed what was paid for them.