Forensic Analysis · Machinery & Fabricated Metal Products · as of Nov 9, 2026
Carrier Global Corp (CARR)
A forensic read on Carrier Global Corp built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
C · Mixed — selective
Forensic grade
Grey Zone
Financial health
2.4
Distress distance
Clean
Earnings quality
3
Forensic signals
10.4%
ROE
-3.3%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (auditor quality, say on pay, board independence, going concern). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
Carrier Global Corp earns a C (Mixed — selective) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 2.4, placing it in the Grey zone. 3 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by cash conversion.
What the filings flag
0.67×
FY2023–FY2025
Cash conversion.Over FY2023–FY2025, cumulative operating cash flow was 0.67× cumulative net income. Reported profit is not turning into cash. The shortfall is profit tied up in working capital rather than collected — the accrual and receivables lines below show where.Cash conversion: operating cash flow divided by net income, the share of profit that arrived as cash.
173% of FCF
FY2025
Shareholder returns.Returned $3.7B to shareholders (buybacks + dividends) in FY2025 — 173% of free cash flow. That is $1.5B (73%) more than free cash flow covered, and more than operating cash flow as well. It came out of the balance sheet's own liquid holdings, not new debt: cash fell $2.4B over FY2025, while total debt fell $805M. A payout past free cash flow draws the balance sheet down in every year it continues, which isn't sustainable indefinitely. Counting the $74M of stock-based comp paid out in shares on top of that, the combined claim on free cash flow is 176%.
6.8%
FY2025
Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is 6.8% in the latest fiscal year and slipping across FY2023–FY2025 from 10.0%. After-tax operating profit was $1.6B in FY2023 and $1.9B in FY2025, with operating income at 11.4% of revenue in FY2023, 11.8% in FY2024 and 10.0% in FY2025. The capital base behind it grew +73% across FY2023–FY2025, from $16.0B to $27.7B, while the return fell 3.2 points, so the dollars added over that window earned less than the 10.0% the older base was already earning.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$21.75B
Revenue Growth YoY-3.3%
Revenue CAGR (2yr)+7.1%
Net Margin6.8%
Free Cash Flow$2.12B
Return on Equity10.4%
Debt / Equity0.81x
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from Carrier Global Corp's actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?