Carrier Global Corp (CARR) Stock — Forensic Analysis, Red Flags & Rating | Stockonomy · Stockonomy
Forensic Analysis · Industrials / Manufacturing / Defense · as of Sep 23, 2026
Carrier Global Corp (CARR)
A forensic read on Carrier Global Corp built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
D · Weak — demands caution
Forensic grade
Safe
Financial health
3.8
Distress distance
Clean
Earnings quality
5
Forensic signals
36.4
P / E (ttm)
10.5%
ROE
$45.6B
Market cap
1.40%
Dividend yield
-3.3%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (red flags, auditor quality, say on pay, board independence, going concern, valuation). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
Carrier Global Corp earns a D (Weak — demands caution) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 3.8, placing it in the Safe zone. 5 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by cash conversion.
What the filings flag
0.67×
FY2023–FY2025
Cash conversion.Over FY2023–FY2025, cumulative operating cash flow was 0.67× cumulative net income. Reported profit is not turning into cash. The shortfall is profit tied up in working capital rather than collected — the accrual and receivables lines below show where.
173% of FCF
FY2025
Shareholder returns.Returned $3.7B to shareholders (buybacks + dividends) in FY2025 — 173% of free cash flow. More than free cash flow generated — and beyond operating cash too, so the extra is coming from debt or cash reserves, which isn't sustainable indefinitely. Counting the $74M of stock-based comp paid out in shares on top of that, the combined claim on free cash flow is 176%.
44d DSO
FY2024→FY2025
Receivables vs revenue.Days sales outstanding moved from 38 to 44 days FY2024→FY2025 (receivables 0% vs revenue -3%). Receivables are creeping up relative to sales. Only 67¢ of operating cash arrived for every dollar of profit reported over FY2023–FY2025 ($5.7B against $8.4B), and the receivables balance is one of the places the rest is sitting. Across FY2021–FY2025 the day count ran 46 → 55 → 47 → 38 → 44 days, so the latest reading sits on top of a record that was flat or falling before it — one year's move, not a direction the business has been travelling in.
6.6%
FY2025
Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is 6.6% in the latest fiscal year, against 11% in FY2021, having run between 6.4% and 19.8% across FY2021–FY2025 with no direction held — slightly below the ~9% cost of capital we hold this sector to — reinvestment to date is roughly a wash. The capital base behind it grew +71% across FY2021–FY2025, from $16.7B to $28.6B, while the return fell 4.6 points, so the dollars added over that window earned less than the 11% the older base was already earning.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$21.75B
Revenue Growth YoY-3.3%
Revenue CAGR (3yr)+7.9%
Net Margin6.8%
Free Cash Flow$2.12B
Return on Equity10.5%
Debt / Equity0.81x
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from Carrier Global Corp's actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?
Data from SEC EDGAR public filings · metrics as of Sep 23, 2026. Forensic signals flag probability, not certainty.
0.0%/yr
FY2022–FY2025
Share count.Diluted share count changed 0% over the last 3 years to FY2025 (0.0%/yr). Roughly flat — buybacks ($2.9B) are about offsetting stock comp ($74M), not shrinking the count. Per-share value isn't being meaningfully helped or hurt by the count.