Forensic Analysis · Department Stores · as of Nov 9, 2026
Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL)
A forensic read on Burlington Stores, Inc. built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
C · Mixed — selective
Forensic grade
Grey Zone
Financial health
1.8
Distress distance
Clean
Earnings quality
3
Forensic signals
38.4%
ROE
8.8%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (auditor quality, say on pay, board independence, going concern). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
Burlington Stores, Inc. earns a C (Mixed — selective) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 1.8, placing it in the Grey zone. 3 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by accruals ratio (% of NOA).
What the filings flag
+23.3%
FY2025→FY2026
Accruals ratio (% of NOA).Net operating assets grew +23.3% relative to their own average in FY2026 — scaled by NOA itself, not by total assets, which is what the Forensic Screens card's own accrual row divides by. Accruals are building sharply — a large slice of profit sits in operating assets, not cash. An accrual is a claim that still has to be collected or written down, so the gap resolves in a later period whichever way it goes. The build is led by PP&E up +34% against revenue +9% and receivables up +20% against revenue +9%. A cash-flow measure on the same base disagrees: reported earnings ran behind operating cash by 26% of net operating assets, against an accruals ratio of 23.3%. The two are computed differently: the accruals ratio is the change in net operating assets over average net operating assets, while the cash-flow figure is net income less operating cash flow over that same average. Read them as two results, not one.Accruals ratio: the year-over-year change in net operating assets, relative to their own average.NOA (net operating assets): the money tied up in running the business, operating assets minus operating liabilities.
10.9%
FY2026
Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is 10.9% in the latest fiscal year and rising across FY2024–FY2026 from 8.3%. After-tax operating profit was $397M in FY2024 and $663M in FY2026. The capital base behind it grew +28% across FY2024–FY2026, from $4.8B to $6.1B, and the return did not fall doing it, so the dollars added over that window earned at least the 8.3% the older base was already earning.
162% of FCF
FY2026
Shareholder returns.Returned $278M to shareholders (buybacks + dividends) in FY2026 — 162% of free cash flow, but 23% of operating cash flow. Returns run ahead of free cash flow because the business is also funding heavy growth capex (usually debt-financed); the payout itself is covered by operating cash — sustainable as long as that spending is genuine expansion, not upkeep. Counting the $107M of stock-based comp paid out in shares on top of that, the combined claim on free cash flow is 224%.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$11.57B
Revenue Growth YoY+8.8%
Revenue CAGR (2yr)+9.0%
Net Margin5.3%
Free Cash Flow$171.6M
Return on Equity38.4%
Debt / Equity1.12x
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from Burlington Stores, Inc.'s actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?