Forensic Analysis · Restaurants · as of Nov 8, 2026
Dutch Bros Inc. (BROS)
A forensic read on Dutch Bros Inc. built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
D · Weak — demands caution
Forensic grade
Distress
Financial health
1.1
Distress distance
4
Forensic signals
13.1%
ROE
27.9%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (auditor quality, say on pay, board independence, going concern). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
Dutch Bros Inc. earns a D (Weak — demands caution) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 1.1, placing it in the Distress zone. 4 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by return on invested capital.
What the filings flag
6.2%
FY2025
Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is 6.2% in the latest fiscal year and rising across FY2023–FY2025 from 2.0%. After-tax operating profit was $30M in FY2023 and $139M in FY2025, with operating income at 4.8% of revenue in FY2023, 8.3% in FY2024 and 9.8% in FY2025. The capital base behind it grew +51% across FY2023–FY2025, from $1.5B to $2.3B, and the return did not fall doing it, so the dollars added over that window earned at least the 2.0% the older base was already earning.
+42.3%/yr
FY2023–FY2025
Share-count dilution.Diluted share count changed +103% over the last 2 years to FY2025 (+42.3%/yr). The count is growing — 62.1M shares in FY2023, 125.8M in FY2025: more stock was issued than repurchased over this window, so aggregate results grew faster than their per-share equivalents. That's ~42.3% shaved off per-share growth every year — total profit has to grow that much just to keep earnings-per-share flat, and a stake held since FY2023 has been diluted ~51%.
+15.8%
FY2024→FY2025
Accruals ratio (% of NOA).Net operating assets grew +15.8% relative to their own average in FY2025 — scaled by NOA itself, not by total assets, which is what the Forensic Screens card's own accrual row divides by. Accruals are building faster than is comfortable — part of profit is sitting in the balance sheet rather than turning to cash. The build is led by receivables up +73% against revenue +28% and inventory up +34% against +29% in cost of sales. A cash-flow measure on the same base disagrees: reported earnings ran behind operating cash by 28% of net operating assets, against an accruals ratio of 15.8%. The two are computed differently: the accruals ratio is the change in net operating assets over average net operating assets, while the cash-flow figure is net income less operating cash flow over that same average. Read them as two results, not one.Accruals ratio: the year-over-year change in net operating assets, relative to their own average.NOA (net operating assets): the money tied up in running the business, operating assets minus operating liabilities.
1.1% of rev
FY2025
Stock-based comp load.Stock-based compensation ran 1.1% of revenue and 33% of free cash flow in FY2025 — about $0.14 per diluted share. No cash left the business to pay it, which is why operating cash flow adds it back. Net of repurchases the diluted count still rose about 42.3% a year across FY2023–FY2025, and the rate is falling. Stock compensation is one source of that issuance; acquisition consideration, equity raises, convertibles and other employee plans also net into the count, and these figures do not separate them.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$1.64B
Revenue Growth YoY+27.9%
Revenue CAGR (2yr)+30.2%
Net Margin4.9%
Free Cash Flow$54.4M
Return on Equity13.1%
Debt / Equity0.29x
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from Dutch Bros Inc.'s actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?