Forensic Analysis · Technology / Software · as of Aug 11, 2026
Bigbear.Ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI)
A forensic read on Bigbear.Ai Holdings, Inc. built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
F · Poor — capital at risk
Forensic grade
Grey Zone
Financial health
2.0
Distress distance
Clean
Earnings quality
6
Forensic signals
-18.6
P / E (ttm)
-48.0%
ROE
$1.5B
Market cap
0.00%
Dividend yield
-19.3%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (red flags, auditor quality, say on pay, board independence). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
Bigbear.Ai Holdings, Inc. earns an F (Poor — capital at risk) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 2.0, placing it in the Grey zone. 6 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by accruals ratio (% of noa).
What the filings flag
+153.9%
FY2024→FY2025
Accruals ratio (% of NOA).Net operating assets grew +153.9% relative to their own average in FY2025 — scaled by NOA itself, not total assets (see the Forensic Screens card's differently-scaled Sloan Accrual Ratio for that read). Accruals are building sharply — a large slice of profit sits in operating assets, not cash; Richardson/Sloan link high accruals to weaker future returns as they reverse. The build is led by payables paid down 28% against -12% in cost of sales. The cash-flow cross-check is more mixed: reported earnings ran behind operating cash by 71% of net operating assets, diverging from the balance-sheet accrual read.
-26.5%
FY2025
Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is -26.5% in the latest fiscal year and rising from -59% — well below its ~10% cost of capital, so reinvested dollars may be destroying value, not building it.
+41.1%/yr
FY2022–FY2025
Share-count dilution.Diluted share count changed +181% over the last 3 years to FY2025 (+41.1%/yr). The count is growing: more stock was issued than repurchased over this window, so aggregate results grew faster than their per-share equivalents. That's ~41.1% shaved off per-share growth every year — total profit has to grow that much just to keep earnings-per-share flat, and a stake held since FY2022 has been diluted ~64%.
18% of rev
FY2025
Stock-based comp load.Stock-based compensation ran 18% of revenue in FY2025 — about $0.07 per diluted share. The cost of it is not in the cash flow — no cash left the business — it is in the count: holders gave up about 42.3% of the company a year, and that rate is not falling. That is the figure to weigh, not the share of free cash flow.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$127.7M
Revenue Growth YoY-19.3%
Revenue CAGR (3yr)-6.3%
Net Margin-230.2%
Free Cash Flow-$42.5M
Return on Equity-48.0%
Debt / Equity0.17x
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from Bigbear.Ai Holdings, Inc.'s actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?
Data from SEC EDGAR public filings · metrics as of Aug 11, 2026. Forensic signals flag probability, not certainty.
Bigbear.Ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) Stock — Forensic Analysis, Red Flags & Rating | Stockonomy · Stockonomy
stopped
FY2022→FY2024
Shareholder returns — halted.Capital returns have STOPPED — $101M of buybacks + dividends in FY2022, but ~$0 in FY2024. A halt usually means the company is conserving cash.
88d DSO
FY2024→FY2025
Receivables vs revenue.Days sales outstanding moved from 70 to 88 days FY2024→FY2025 (receivables -42% vs revenue -19%). Receivables are creeping up relative to sales. Across FY2021–FY2025 the day count ran 63 → 69 → 61 → 70 → 88 days — the latest step continues a climb that was already under way, which is the persistence that separates a collection problem from a busy quarter.