Forensic Analysis · Technology / Software · as of Sep 25, 2026
Bigbear.Ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI)
A forensic read on Bigbear.Ai Holdings, Inc. built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
F · Poor — capital at risk
Forensic grade
Grey Zone
Financial health
1.9
Distress distance
Clean
Earnings quality
5
Forensic signals
-17.9
P / E (ttm)
-48.0%
ROE
$1.5B
Market cap
0.00%
Dividend yield
-19.3%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (red flags, auditor quality, say on pay, board independence, going concern, valuation). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
Bigbear.Ai Holdings, Inc. earns an F (Poor — capital at risk) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 1.9, placing it in the Grey zone. 5 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by accruals ratio (% of noa).
What the filings flag
+153.9%
FY2024→FY2025
Accruals ratio (% of NOA).Net operating assets grew +153.9% relative to their own average in FY2025 — scaled by NOA itself, not by total assets, which is what the Forensic Screens card's own accrual row divides by. Accruals are building sharply — a large slice of profit sits in operating assets, not cash. An accrual is a claim that still has to be collected or written down, so the gap resolves in a later period whichever way it goes. The build is led by payables paid down 28% against -12% in cost of sales. A cash-flow measure on the same base disagrees: reported earnings ran behind operating cash by 71% of net operating assets, against an accruals ratio of 153.9%. The two are computed differently: the accruals ratio is the change in net operating assets over average net operating assets, while the cash-flow figure is net income less operating cash flow over that same average. Read them as two results, not one.
-26.5%
FY2025
Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is -26.5% in the latest fiscal year, against -31.0% in FY2023, having run between -115.2% and -26.5% across FY2023–FY2025 with no direction held. After-tax operating profit was ($31M) in FY2023 and ($169M) in FY2025, with operating income at -25.2% of revenue in FY2023, -84.3% in FY2024 and -167.5% in FY2025. The capital base behind it grew +542% across FY2023–FY2025, from $99M to $638M, and the return did not fall doing it, so the dollars added over that window earned at least the -31.0% the older base was already earning. FY2025's operating profit carried a $71M goodwill write-off and a $4M restructuring charge that alone took about 9.3 points off that year's return, so the latest return is depressed by that charge. FY2024's operating profit carried a $85M goodwill write-off and a $1M restructuring charge that alone took about 74.5 points off that year's return; FY2024 sits between the two ends of FY2023–FY2025, so the charge shapes the path between them without moving the change across it.
+55.1%/yr
FY2023–FY2025
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$127.7M
Revenue Growth YoY-19.3%
Revenue CAGR (2yr)-9.3%
Net Margin-230.2%
Free Cash Flow-$46.3M
Return on Equity-48.0%
Debt / Equity0.17x
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from Bigbear.Ai Holdings, Inc.'s actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?
Data from SEC EDGAR public filings · metrics as of Sep 25, 2026. Forensic signals flag probability, not certainty.
Bigbear.Ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) Stock — Forensic Analysis, Red Flags & Rating | Stockonomy · Stockonomy
Share-count dilution.
Diluted share count changed +140% over the last 2 years to FY2025 (+55.1%/yr). The count is growing: more stock was issued than repurchased over this window, so aggregate results grew faster than their per-share equivalents. That's ~55.1% shaved off per-share growth every year — total profit has to grow that much just to keep earnings-per-share flat, and a stake held since FY2023 has been diluted ~58%.
18% of rev
FY2025
Stock-based comp load.Stock-based compensation ran 18% of revenue in FY2025 — about $0.07 per diluted share. No cash left the business to pay it, which is why operating cash flow adds it back. Net of repurchases the diluted count still rose about 55.1% a year, and the rate is falling. Stock compensation is one source of that issuance; acquisition consideration, equity raises, convertibles and other employee plans also net into the count, and these figures do not separate them.
$156M
FY2024–FY2025
Goodwill impairments.Took $156M of goodwill writedowns across 2 years (FY2024 ($85M), FY2025 ($71M)). Writedowns mean past acquisitions underperformed what was paid for them.