Forensic Analysis · Technology / Software · as of Jun 27, 2026

BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI)

A forensic read on BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.

D · Weak — demands caution

Forensic grade

Distress

Financial health

-1.4

Altman Z-score

Clean

Earnings quality

Forensic signals

-50.7%

ROE

$1.7B

Market cap

BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. earns a D (Weak — demands caution) forensic quality grade, and its Altman Z-score is -1.4, placing it in the Distress zone. 6 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by accruals ratio.

What the filings flag

+153.9%Accruals ratio. Net operating assets grew +153.9% relative to their average in FY2025 — the accrual component of earnings. Accruals are building sharply — a large slice of profit sits in operating assets, not cash; Richardson/Sloan link high accruals to weaker future returns as they reverse. The cash-flow cross-check agrees: reported earnings ran behind operating cash by -71% of net operating assets.

-26%Return on invested capital. Return on invested capital is -26% and rising from -59% — well below its ~10% cost of capital, so reinvested dollars may be destroying value, not building it.

+60.3%/yrShare-count dilution. Diluted share count changed +181% over the last 3 years to FY2025 (+60.3%/yr). The count is GROWING — existing holders are being diluted. That's ~60.3% shaved off per-share growth every year — total profit has to grow that much just to keep earnings-per-share flat, and a stake held since FY2022 has been diluted ~181%.

stoppedShareholder returns — halted. Capital returns have STOPPED — $101M of buybacks + dividends in FY2022, but ~$0 in FY2024. A halt usually means the company is conserving cash; understand why before reading it as neutral.

18% of revStock-based comp load. Stock-based compensation ran 18% of revenue in FY2025 — about $0.07 per diluted share. Meaningful — reported free cash flow flatters the economics, since SBC is a real cost paid in shares.

$209MGoodwill impairments. Took $209M of goodwill writedowns across 3 year(s) (FY2022 ($54M), FY2024 ($85M), FY2025 ($71M)). Writedowns mean past acquisitions underperformed what was paid for them — worth weighing on capital-allocation skill.

Key fundamentals

Net Margin-230.2%

Debt / Equity0.17x

Free Cash Flow$-42.5M

Latest Revenue$127.7M

Return on Equity-48.0%

Revenue Growth YoY-19.3%

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Data from SEC EDGAR public filings · metrics as of Jun 27, 2026. Forensic signals flag probability, not certainty.