Forensic Analysis · Software & SaaS · as of Nov 8, 2026
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI)
A forensic read on BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
F · Poor — capital at risk
Forensic grade
Distress
Financial health
-1.4
Distress distance
Clean
Earnings quality
5
Forensic signals
-96.7%
ROE
-19.3%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (auditor quality, say on pay, board independence, going concern). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. earns an F (Poor — capital at risk) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads -1.4, placing it in the Distress zone. 5 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by accruals ratio (% of NOA).
What the filings flag
+114.0%
FY2024→FY2025
Accruals ratio (% of NOA).Net operating assets grew +114.0% relative to their own average in FY2025 — scaled by NOA itself, not by total assets, which is what the Forensic Screens card's own accrual row divides by. Accruals are building sharply — a large slice of profit sits in operating assets, not cash. An accrual is a claim that still has to be collected or written down, so the gap resolves in a later period whichever way it goes. Net operating assets also rose $142.4M through acquisitions (increase in goodwill and intangibles); that purchase is investing and is excluded from this ratio. The build is led by payables paid down 28% against -12% in cost of sales. A cash-flow measure on the same base disagrees: reported earnings ran behind operating cash by 71% of net operating assets, against an accruals ratio of 114.0%. The two are computed differently: the accruals ratio is the change in net operating assets over average net operating assets, while the cash-flow figure is net income less operating cash flow over that same average. Read them as two results, not one.Accruals ratio: the year-over-year change in net operating assets, relative to their own average.NOA (net operating assets): the money tied up in running the business, operating assets minus operating liabilities.
-46.3%
FY2025
Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is -46.3% in the latest fiscal year, against -31.0% in FY2023, having run between -110.4% and -31.0% across FY2023–FY2025 with no direction held. After-tax operating profit was ($31M) in FY2023 and ($169M) in FY2025, with operating income at -25.2% of revenue in FY2023, -84.3% in FY2024 and -167.5% in FY2025. The capital base behind it grew +267% across FY2023–FY2025, from $99M to $365M, while the return fell 15.3 points, so the dollars added over that window earned less than the -31.0% the older base was already earning. FY2025's operating profit carried a $71M goodwill write-off and a $4M restructuring charge that alone took about 16.2 points off that year's return, so more than the whole 15.3-point fall across FY2023–FY2025 is that charge landing in the latest year rather than the capital earning less. FY2024's operating profit carried a $85M goodwill write-off and a $1M restructuring charge that alone took about 71.4 points off that year's return; FY2024 sits between the two ends of FY2023–FY2025, so the charge shapes the path between them without moving the change across it. A non-cash write-down lowers the reported return in the year it lands.
+55.1%/yr
FY2023–FY2025
Share-count dilution.Diluted share count changed +140% over the last 2 years to FY2025 (+55.1%/yr). The count is growing — 149.2M shares in FY2023, 358.8M in FY2025: more stock was issued than repurchased over this window, so aggregate results grew faster than their per-share equivalents. That's ~55.1% shaved off per-share growth every year — total profit has to grow that much just to keep earnings-per-share flat, and a stake held since FY2023 has been diluted ~58%.
18% of rev
FY2025
Stock-based comp load.Stock-based compensation ran 18% of revenue in FY2025 — about $0.07 per diluted share. No cash left the business to pay it, which is why operating cash flow adds it back. Net of repurchases the diluted count still rose about 55.1% a year across FY2023–FY2025, and the rate is falling. Stock compensation is one source of that issuance; acquisition consideration, equity raises, convertibles and other employee plans also net into the count, and these figures do not separate them.
$156M
FY2024–FY2025
Goodwill impairments.Took $156M of goodwill writedowns across 2 years (FY2024 ($85M), FY2025 ($71M)). Writedowns mean past acquisitions underperformed what was paid for them.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$127.7M
Revenue Growth YoY-19.3%
Revenue CAGR (2yr)-9.3%
Net Margin-230.2%
Free Cash Flow-$46.3M
Return on Equity-96.7%
Debt / Equity0.17x
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.'s actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?