Forensic Analysis · Technology / Software · as of Jun 27, 2026
AXT INC (AXTI)
A forensic read on AXT INC built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
D · Weak — demands caution
Forensic grade
Safe
Financial health
4.4
Altman Z-score
Clean
Earnings quality
3
Forensic signals
-6.2%
ROE
$4.6B
Market cap
AXT INC earns a D (Weak — demands caution) forensic quality grade, and its Altman Z-score is 4.4, placing it in the Safe zone. 3 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by receivables vs revenue.
What the filings flag
111d DSOReceivables vs revenue. Days sales outstanding moved from 94 to 111 days FY2024→FY2025 (receivables +5% vs revenue -11%). Receivables are outrunning sales — a flag for aggressive revenue recognition or slipping collections.
-8%Return on invested capital. Return on invested capital is -8% and slipping from 4% — well below its ~10% cost of capital, so reinvested dollars may be destroying value, not building it.
+1.0%/yrShare-count dilution. Diluted share count changed +3% over the last 3 years to FY2025 (+1.0%/yr). Roughly flat — buybacks are about offsetting stock comp, not shrinking the count. Per-share value isn't being meaningfully helped or hurt by the count.
Key fundamentals
Net Margin-24.1%
Debt / Equity0.02x
Free Cash Flow$-18.8M
Latest Revenue$88.3M
Return on Equity-7.8%
Revenue Growth YoY-11.1%
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🔒Interactive valuation — reverse-DCF sliders, Monte Carlo & scenario stress
🔒Calibrated 12-month price forecast, with the math shown
🔒Peer comparison + filing-change monitoring & alerts
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Data from SEC EDGAR public filings · metrics as of Jun 27, 2026. Forensic signals flag probability, not certainty.