Forensic Analysis · Semiconductors · as of Aug 11, 2026
Axt Inc (AXTI)
A forensic read on Axt Inc built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
F · Poor — capital at risk
Forensic grade
Safe
Financial health
14.1
Distress distance
Clean
Earnings quality
4
Forensic signals
3145.2
P / E (ttm)
-7.8%
ROE
$4.9B
Market cap
0.00%
Dividend yield
-11.1%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (red flags, auditor quality, say on pay, board independence). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
Axt Inc earns an F (Poor — capital at risk) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 14.1, placing it in the Safe zone. 4 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by return on invested capital.
What the filings flag
-7.6%
FY2025
Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is -7.6% in the latest fiscal year and slipping from 4% — well below its ~10% cost of capital, so reinvested dollars may be destroying value, not building it.
FCF ($2M)
FY2015
Shareholder returns.Returned $2M to shareholders (buybacks + dividends) in FY2015, but free cash flow was ($2M) after capex — there was no free cash flow to fund the payout from at all, though operating cash flow alone was $2M — 122% of that. The entire return is coming from debt or cash reserves, not cash the business itself generated — a harder case than returns merely running ahead of free cash flow, since here there was none to run ahead of.
108d DSO
FY2024→FY2025
Receivables vs revenue.Days sales outstanding moved from 82 to 108 days FY2024→FY2025 (receivables +5% vs revenue -11%). Receivables are creeping up relative to sales. Across FY2021–FY2025 the day count ran 79 → 83 → 117 → 82 → 108 days, so the latest reading sits on top of a record that was flat or falling before it — one year's move, not a direction the business has been travelling in. Deferred revenue was roughly flat (-94%) over the same period, which doesn't corroborate a benign upfront-billing explanation for the receivables build.
+0.9%/yr
FY2022–FY2025
Share count.Diluted share count changed +3% over the last 3 years to FY2025 (+0.9%/yr). Roughly flat — the count is neither shrinking nor growing meaningfully. Per-share value isn't being meaningfully helped or hurt by the count.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$88.3M
Revenue Growth YoY-11.1%
Revenue CAGR (3yr)-14.5%
Net Margin-24.1%
Free Cash Flow-$18.8M
Return on Equity-7.8%
Debt / Equity0.02x
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from Axt Inc's actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?