Forensic Analysis · Water Utilities · as of Nov 9, 2026
American States Water Co (AWR)
A forensic read on American States Water Co built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
B · Sound & dependable
Forensic grade
Clean
Earnings quality
5
Forensic signals
13.3%
ROE
10.5%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (auditor quality, say on pay, board independence, going concern). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
American States Water Co earns a B (Sound & dependable) forensic quality grade. 5 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by shareholder returns.
What the filings flag
FCF ($7M)
FY2025
Shareholder returns.Returned $75M to shareholders (buybacks + dividends) in FY2025, but free cash flow was ($7M) after capex — there was no free cash flow to fund the payout from at all, though operating cash flow alone was $230M — 32% of that. Capex and the payout together ran $82M past operating cash flow — a harder case than returns merely running ahead of free cash flow, since here there was none to run ahead of. The balance sheet covered it: cash fell $8M and total debt rose $150M over FY2025.
+16.9%
FY2024→FY2025
Accruals ratio (% of NOA).Net operating assets grew +16.9% relative to their own average in FY2025 — scaled by NOA itself, not by total assets, which is what the Forensic Screens card's own accrual row divides by. Accruals are building faster than is comfortable — part of profit is sitting in the balance sheet rather than turning to cash. The build is led by PP&E up +9% against revenue +11%. A cash-flow measure on the same base disagrees: reported earnings ran behind operating cash by 6% of net operating assets, against an accruals ratio of 16.9%. The two are computed differently: the accruals ratio is the change in net operating assets over average net operating assets, while the cash-flow figure is net income less operating cash flow over that same average. Read them as two results, not one.Accruals ratio: the year-over-year change in net operating assets, relative to their own average.NOA (net operating assets): the money tied up in running the business, operating assets minus operating liabilities.
6.6%
FY2025
Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is 6.6% in the latest fiscal year and steady across FY2023–FY2025, inside a 0.5-point range. After-tax operating profit was $148M in FY2023 and $156M in FY2025, with operating income at 33.0% of revenue in FY2023, 31.0% in FY2024 and 30.9% in FY2025. The capital base behind it grew +14% across FY2023–FY2025, from $2.1B to $2.4B, while the return fell 0.5 points, so the dollars added over that window earned less than the 7.1% the older base was already earning. $255M of the $2.4B base at FY2025 is construction in progress (10.8%) — paid for, not yet in service, and so in the denominator of this return.
+2.1%/yr
FY2023–FY2025
Share-count dilution.Diluted share count changed +4% over the last 2 years to FY2025 (+2.1%/yr). The count is growing — 37.1M shares in FY2023, 38.7M in FY2025: more stock was issued than repurchased over this window, so aggregate results grew faster than their per-share equivalents. That's ~2.1% shaved off per-share growth every year — total profit has to grow that much just to keep earnings-per-share flat, and a stake held since FY2023 has been diluted ~4%.
0.5% of rev
FY2025
Stock-based comp load.Stock-based compensation ran 0.5% of revenue in FY2025 — about $0.09 per diluted share. No cash left the business to pay it, which is why operating cash flow adds it back. Net of repurchases the diluted count still rose about 2.1% a year across FY2023–FY2025 and that rate is not falling, so total profit has to grow by that much annually before any of it reaches a share. Stock compensation is one source of that issuance; acquisition consideration, equity raises, convertibles and other employee plans also net into the count, and these figures do not separate them.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$658.1M
Revenue Growth YoY+10.5%
Revenue CAGR (2yr)+5.1%
Net Margin19.8%
Free Cash Flow-$7.1M
Return on Equity13.3%
Debt / Equity0.76x
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from American States Water Co's actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?