Forensic Analysis · Healthcare / Pharmaceuticals / Biotech · as of Sep 25, 2026
Avalo Therapeutics, Inc. (AVTX)
A forensic read on Avalo Therapeutics, Inc. built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
D · Weak — demands caution
Forensic grade
Grey Zone
Financial health
14.2
Distress distance
Not computable
Earnings quality
4
Forensic signals
-94.2%
ROE
$821M
Market cap
-86.6%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (red flags, auditor quality, say on pay, board independence, going concern, valuation). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
Avalo Therapeutics, Inc. earns a D (Weak — demands caution) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 14.2, placing it in the Grey zone. 4 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by share-count dilution.
What the filings flag
+594.7%/yr
FY2023–FY2025
Share-count dilution.Diluted share count changed +4727% over the last 2 years to FY2025 (+594.7%/yr). The count is growing — 0.3M shares in FY2023, 13.4M in FY2025: more stock was issued than repurchased over this window, so aggregate results grew faster than their per-share equivalents. That's ~594.7% shaved off per-share growth every year — total profit has to grow that much just to keep earnings-per-share flat, and a stake held since FY2023 has been diluted ~98%.
n/m (sign flip)
FY2024→FY2025
Accruals ratio (% of NOA).Net operating assets flipped from negative to positive FY2024→FY2025 (FY2024 $-1.5M to FY2025 $+67.2M) — the standard accruals ratio divides by the average of the two, which collapses toward zero right as the sign changes, so the resulting percentage is a denominator artifact, not a real accrual measurement. Treat this as a structural balance-sheet shift to understand on its own terms rather than a clean or dirty accruals read.
23086% of rev
FY2025
Stock-based comp load.Stock-based compensation ran 23086% of revenue in FY2025 — about $1.02 per diluted share. No cash left the business to pay it, which is why operating cash flow adds it back. Net of repurchases the diluted count still rose about 594.7% a year across FY2023–FY2025, and the rate is falling. Stock compensation is one source of that issuance; acquisition consideration, equity raises, convertibles and other employee plans also net into the count, and these figures do not separate them.
$4M
FY2023–FY2023
Goodwill impairments.Took $4M of goodwill writedowns across 1 year (FY2023 ($4M)). Writedowns mean past acquisitions underperformed what was paid for them.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$59,000.00
Revenue Growth YoY-86.6%
Revenue CAGR (2yr)-82.5%
Net Margin-132642.4%
Return on Equity-94.2%
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from Avalo Therapeutics, Inc.'s actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?