Forensic Analysis · Professional & Commercial Services · as of Aug 11, 2026
Astrana Health, Inc. (ASTH)
A forensic read on Astrana Health, Inc. built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
D · Weak — demands caution
Forensic grade
Grey Zone
Financial health
2.6
Distress distance
Clean
Earnings quality
6
Forensic signals
58.8
P / E (ttm)
2.9%
ROE
$1.8B
Market cap
0.14%
Dividend yield
56.4%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (red flags, auditor quality, say on pay, board independence). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
Astrana Health, Inc. earns a D (Weak — demands caution) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 2.6, placing it in the Grey zone. 6 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by accruals ratio (% of noa).
What the filings flag
+55.5%
FY2024→FY2025
Accruals ratio (% of NOA).Net operating assets grew +55.5% relative to their own average in FY2025 — scaled by NOA itself, not total assets (see the Forensic Screens card's differently-scaled Sloan Accrual Ratio for that read). Accruals are building sharply — a large slice of profit sits in operating assets, not cash; Richardson/Sloan link high accruals to weaker future returns as they reverse. The build is led by receivables up +36% against revenue +56%. The cash-flow cross-check is more mixed: reported earnings ran behind operating cash by 10% of net operating assets, diverging from the balance-sheet accrual read.
4.2%
FY2025
Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is 4.2% in the latest fiscal year and slipping from 13% — well below its ~10% cost of capital, so reinvested dollars may be destroying value, not building it.
+2.7%/yr
FY2022–FY2025
Share-count dilution.Diluted share count changed +8% over the last 3 years to FY2025 (+2.7%/yr). The count is growing: more stock was issued than repurchased over this window, so aggregate results grew faster than their per-share equivalents. That's ~2.7% shaved off per-share growth every year — total profit has to grow that much just to keep earnings-per-share flat, and a stake held since FY2022 has been diluted ~8%.
1.2% of rev
FY2025
Stock-based comp load.Stock-based compensation ran 1.2% of revenue and 37% of free cash flow in FY2025 — about $0.78 per diluted share. The cost of it is not in the cash flow — no cash left the business — it is in the count: holders gave up about 2.7% of the company a year, and that rate is not falling. That is the figure to weigh, not the share of free cash flow.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$3.18B
Revenue Growth YoY+56.4%
Revenue CAGR (3yr)+40.6%
Net Margin0.7%
Free Cash Flow$104.5M
Return on Equity2.9%
Debt / Equity1.33x
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from Astrana Health, Inc.'s actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?
Data from SEC EDGAR public filings · metrics as of Aug 11, 2026. Forensic signals flag probability, not certainty.
Astrana Health, Inc. (ASTH) Stock — Forensic Analysis, Red Flags & Rating | Stockonomy · Stockonomy
$4M
FY2019–FY2019
Goodwill impairments.Took $4M of goodwill writedowns across 1 year (FY2019 ($4M)) — about 27% of net income over the span. Writedowns mean past acquisitions underperformed what was paid for them.
-94%
FY2023→FY2024
Dividend — cut.The payout was CUT ~94% in FY2024 (from FY2023). It still returns some cash, but it is NOT the dependable, rising dividend an unbroken streak implies.