Forensic Analysis · Consulting & Engineering Services · as of Nov 9, 2026
Astrana Health, Inc. (ASTH)
A forensic read on Astrana Health, Inc. built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
C · Mixed — selective
Forensic grade
Grey Zone
Financial health
1.9
Distress distance
4
Forensic signals
3.0%
ROE
56.4%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (auditor quality, say on pay, board independence, going concern). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
Astrana Health, Inc. earns a C (Mixed — selective) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 1.9, placing it in the Grey zone. 4 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by return on invested capital.
What the filings flag
5.3%
FY2025
Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is 5.3% in the latest fiscal year and slipping across FY2023–FY2025 from 12.5%. After-tax operating profit was $55M in FY2023 and $51M in FY2025, with operating income at 6.1% of revenue in FY2023, 4.4% in FY2024 and 2.5% in FY2025. The capital base behind it grew +119% across FY2023–FY2025, from $440M to $966M, while the return fell 7.2 points, so the dollars added over that window earned less than the 12.5% the older base was already earning.
+2.6%/yr
FY2023–FY2025
Share-count dilution.Diluted share count changed +5% over the last 2 years to FY2025 (+2.6%/yr). The count is growing — 46.9M shares in FY2023, 49.4M in FY2025: more stock was issued than repurchased over this window, so aggregate results grew faster than their per-share equivalents. That's ~2.6% shaved off per-share growth every year — total profit has to grow that much just to keep earnings-per-share flat, and a stake held since FY2023 has been diluted ~5%.
1.2% of rev
FY2025
Stock-based comp load.Stock-based compensation ran 1.2% of revenue and 37% of free cash flow in FY2025 — about $0.78 per diluted share. No cash left the business to pay it, which is why operating cash flow adds it back. Net of repurchases the diluted count still rose about 2.6% a year across FY2023–FY2025 and that rate is not falling, so total profit has to grow by that much annually before any of it reaches a share. Stock compensation is one source of that issuance; acquisition consideration, equity raises, convertibles and other employee plans also net into the count, and these figures do not separate them.
-94%
FY2023→FY2024
Dividend — cut.The payout was CUT ~94% in FY2024 (from FY2023). It still returns some cash, but it is NOT the dependable, rising dividend an unbroken streak implies.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$3.18B
Revenue Growth YoY+56.4%
Revenue CAGR (2yr)+51.5%
Net Margin0.7%
Free Cash Flow$104.5M
Return on Equity3.0%
Debt / Equity1.33x
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from Astrana Health, Inc.'s actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?