ALUMIS INC. (ALMS) Stock — Forensic Analysis, Red Flags & Rating | Stockonomy · Stockonomy
Forensic Analysis · Healthcare / Pharmaceuticals / Biotech · as of Jun 27, 2026
ALUMIS INC. (ALMS)
A forensic read on ALUMIS INC. built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
D · Weak — demands caution
Forensic grade
Distress
Financial health
-7.8
Altman Z-score
Clean
Earnings quality
4
Forensic signals
-54.7%
ROE
$3.4B
Market cap
ALUMIS INC. earns a D (Weak — demands caution) forensic quality grade, and its Altman Z-score is -7.8, placing it in the Distress zone. 4 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by accruals ratio.
What the filings flag
+80.1%Accruals ratio.Net operating assets grew +80.1% relative to their average in FY2025 — the accrual component of earnings. Accruals are building sharply — a large slice of profit sits in operating assets, not cash; Richardson/Sloan link high accruals to weaker future returns as they reverse. The cash-flow cross-check agrees: reported earnings ran ahead of operating cash by +84% of net operating assets.
-144%Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is -144% and rising from -549% — well below its ~10% cost of capital, so reinvested dollars may be destroying value, not building it.
+1927.3%/yrShare-count dilution.Diluted share count changed +3855% over the last 2 years to FY2025 (+1927.3%/yr). The count is GROWING — existing holders are being diluted. That's ~1927.3% shaved off per-share growth every year — total profit has to grow that much just to keep earnings-per-share flat, and a stake held since FY2023 has been diluted ~3855%.
181% of revStock-based comp load.Stock-based compensation ran 181% of revenue in FY2025 — about $0.51 per diluted share. Meaningful — reported free cash flow flatters the economics, since SBC is a real cost paid in shares.
Key fundamentals
Net Margin-1011.7%
Free Cash Flow$-370.2M
Latest Revenue$24.1M
Return on Equity-80.8%
Go deeper — free with an account
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. An account adds the full interactive deep-dive on ALUMIS INC.:
🔒The written investment read — what the numbers mean, in plain English
🔒Ask anything about ALMS's filings — AI Q&A across the 10-K, 10-Qs & 8-Ks
🔒Interactive valuation — reverse-DCF sliders, Monte Carlo & scenario stress
🔒Calibrated 12-month price forecast, with the math shown