Forensic Analysis · Healthcare / Pharmaceuticals / Biotech · as of Aug 11, 2026
Alumis Inc. (ALMS)
A forensic read on Alumis Inc. built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
F · Poor — capital at risk
Forensic grade
Grey Zone
Financial health
22.5
Distress distance
Clean
Earnings quality
5
Forensic signals
-14.4
P / E (ttm)
-80.8%
ROE
$3.5B
Market cap
0.00%
Dividend yield
0.0%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (red flags, auditor quality, say on pay, board independence). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
Alumis Inc. earns an F (Poor — capital at risk) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 22.5, placing it in the Grey zone. 5 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by accruals ratio (% of noa).
What the filings flag
+80.1%
FY2024→FY2025
Accruals ratio (% of NOA).Net operating assets grew +80.1% relative to their own average in FY2025 — scaled by NOA itself, not total assets (see the Forensic Screens card's differently-scaled Sloan Accrual Ratio for that read). Accruals are building sharply — a large slice of profit sits in operating assets, not cash; Richardson/Sloan link high accruals to weaker future returns as they reverse. The cash-flow cross-check agrees: reported earnings ran ahead of operating cash by 84% of net operating assets.
FCF ($370M)
FY2025
Shareholder returns.Returned $17,000 to shareholders (buybacks + dividends) in FY2025, but free cash flow was ($370M) after capex — there was no free cash flow to fund the payout from at all, and operating cash flow itself was negative or zero that year too. The entire return is coming from debt or cash reserves, not cash the business itself generated — a harder case than returns merely running ahead of free cash flow, since here there was none to run ahead of.
-$624.6M
FY2024–FY2025
Cash burn vs. reported loss.Over FY2024–FY2025, the company reported a cumulative net loss of $537.6M against operating cash flow of -$624.6M. Cash burn ran heavier than the reported loss — something outside net income (working capital, a cash item not in the P&L) is consuming cash faster than the loss alone implies.
n/m (stock split)
FY2024–FY2025
Share count (stock split).Diluted share count changed +200% over the last 1 year to FY2025, but that includes a large one-time change around FY2025 consistent with a stock split or reverse split, not gradual buybacks or issuance — a split changes the count with NO effect on any holder's proportional ownership, so the raw +200.0%/yr figure isn't a real buyback/dilution read here.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$24.1M
Net Margin-1011.7%
Free Cash Flow-$370.2M
Return on Equity-80.8%
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from Alumis Inc.'s actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?
Data from SEC EDGAR public filings · metrics as of Aug 11, 2026. Forensic signals flag probability, not certainty.
181% of rev
FY2025
Stock-based comp load.Stock-based compensation ran 181% of revenue in FY2025 — about $0.51 per diluted share. It is a real cost, but it is not a cash cost — no cash left the business, which is why operating cash flow adds it back. The bill lands on the share count instead, and this filer's count is not on file in enough years to say how much of the company changed hands to pay it.
Alumis Inc. (ALMS) Stock — Forensic Analysis, Red Flags & Rating | Stockonomy · Stockonomy