Forensic Analysis · Transportation / Logistics · as of Sep 25, 2026
Allegiant Travel Co (ALGT)
A forensic read on Allegiant Travel Co built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
D · Weak — demands caution
Forensic grade
Grey Zone
Financial health
1.4
Distress distance
Clean
Earnings quality
3
Forensic signals
82.2
P / E (ttm)
-4.2%
ROE
$2.1B
Market cap
3.45%
Dividend yield
3.7%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (red flags, auditor quality, say on pay, board independence, going concern, valuation). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
Allegiant Travel Co earns a D (Weak — demands caution) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 1.4, placing it in the Grey zone. 3 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by return on invested capital.
What the filings flag
0.9%
FY2025
Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is 0.9% in the latest fiscal year, against 4.1% in FY2023, having run between -5.7% and 4.1% across FY2023–FY2025 with no direction held. After-tax operating profit was $163M in FY2023 and $29M in FY2025, with operating income at 8.8% of revenue in FY2023, -9.6% in FY2024 and 1.4% in FY2025. The capital base behind it came down -21% across FY2023–FY2025, from $4.0B to $3.1B, so this is a return struck on a smaller base rather than a record of money put to work. FY2025's operating profit carried a $44M restructuring charge that alone took about 1.1 points off that year's return, so about 1.1 of the 3.2-point fall across FY2023–FY2025 is that charge landing in the latest year rather than the capital earning less.
FCF ($18M)
FY2025
Shareholder returns.Returned $14M to shareholders (buybacks + dividends) in FY2025, but free cash flow was ($18M) after capex — there was no free cash flow to fund the payout from at all, though operating cash flow alone was $390M — 3% of that. The entire return is coming from debt or cash reserves, not cash the business itself generated — a harder case than returns merely running ahead of free cash flow, since here there was none to run ahead of.
+0.1%/yr
FY2023–FY2025
Share count.Diluted share count changed 0% over the last 2 years to FY2025 (+0.1%/yr). Roughly flat — buybacks ($14M) are about offsetting stock comp ($11M), not shrinking the count. Per-share value isn't being meaningfully helped or hurt by the count.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$2.61B
Revenue Growth YoY+3.7%
Revenue CAGR (2yr)+1.9%
Net Margin-1.7%
Free Cash Flow-$18.5M
Return on Equity-4.2%
Debt / Equity1.71x
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from Allegiant Travel Co's actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?