Forensic Analysis · Energy / Oil & Gas · as of Aug 10, 2026
Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI)
A forensic read on Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
D · Weak — demands caution
Forensic grade
Grey Zone
Financial health
1.6
Distress distance
Clean
Earnings quality
5
Forensic signals
-11.9
P / E (ttm)
-4.2%
ROE
$1.4B
Market cap
2.60%
Dividend yield
3.7%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (red flags, auditor quality, say on pay, board independence). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. earns a D (Weak — demands caution) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 1.6, placing it in the Grey zone. 5 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by return on invested capital.
What the filings flag
-0.4%
FY2025
Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is -0.4% in the latest fiscal year and slipping from 20% — well below its ~8% cost of capital, so reinvested dollars may be destroying value, not building it.
+31.3%/yr
FY2023–FY2025
Share-count dilution.Diluted share count changed +72% over the last 2 years to FY2025 (+31.3%/yr). The count is growing: more stock was issued than repurchased over this window, so aggregate results grew faster than their per-share equivalents. That's ~31.3% shaved off per-share growth every year — total profit has to grow that much just to keep earnings-per-share flat, and a stake held since FY2023 has been diluted ~42%.
FCF ($31M)
FY2025
Shareholder returns.Returned $200,000 to shareholders (buybacks + dividends) in FY2025, but free cash flow was ($31M) after capex — there was no free cash flow to fund the payout from at all, though operating cash flow alone was $117M — 0% of that. The entire return is coming from debt or cash reserves, not cash the business itself generated — a harder case than returns merely running ahead of free cash flow, since here there was none to run ahead of.
+14.4%
FY2024→FY2025
Accruals ratio (% of NOA).Net operating assets grew +14.4% relative to their own average in FY2025 — scaled by NOA itself, not total assets (see the Forensic Screens card's differently-scaled Sloan Accrual Ratio for that read). Accruals are building faster than is comfortable — part of profit is sitting in the balance sheet rather than turning to cash. The build is led by payables paid down 42% against +15% in cost of sales and receivables up +9% against revenue +4%. The cash-flow cross-check is more mixed: reported earnings ran behind operating cash by 10% of net operating assets, diverging from the balance-sheet accrual read.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$1.10B
Revenue Growth YoY+3.7%
Net Margin-4.6%
Free Cash Flow-$30.9M
Return on Equity-4.2%
Debt / Equity0.48x
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from Atlas Energy Solutions Inc.'s actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?
Data from SEC EDGAR public filings · metrics as of Aug 10, 2026. Forensic signals flag probability, not certainty.
Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI) Stock — Forensic Analysis, Red Flags & Rating | Stockonomy · Stockonomy
3% of rev
FY2025
Stock-based comp load.Stock-based compensation ran 3% of revenue in FY2025 — about $0.27 per diluted share. The cost of it is not in the cash flow — no cash left the business — it is in the count, and there it has run at about 32.9% a year and is falling.