Forensic Analysis · General / Diversified · as of Nov 8, 2026
AES Corp (AES)
A forensic read on AES Corp built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
D · Weak — demands caution
Forensic grade
Distress
Financial health
-0.1
Distress distance
Clean
Earnings quality
4
Forensic signals
23.6%
ROE
-0.4%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (auditor quality, say on pay, board independence, going concern). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
AES Corp earns a D (Weak — demands caution) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads -0.1, placing it in the Distress zone. 4 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by accruals ratio (% of NOA).
What the filings flag
+37.6%
FY2024→FY2025
Accruals ratio (% of NOA).Net operating assets grew +37.6% relative to their own average in FY2025 — scaled by NOA itself, not by total assets, which is what the Forensic Screens card's own accrual row divides by. Accruals are building sharply — a large slice of profit sits in operating assets, not cash. An accrual is a claim that still has to be collected or written down, so the gap resolves in a later period whichever way it goes. Net operating assets also rose $108.0M through acquisitions (increase in goodwill and intangibles); that purchase is investing and is excluded from this ratio. The build is led by PP&E up +14% against revenue 0%. A cash-flow measure on the same base disagrees: reported earnings ran behind operating cash by 38% of net operating assets, against an accruals ratio of 37.6%. The two are computed differently: the accruals ratio is the change in net operating assets over average net operating assets, while the cash-flow figure is net income less operating cash flow over that same average. Read them as two results, not one.Accruals ratio: the year-over-year change in net operating assets, relative to their own average.NOA (net operating assets): the money tied up in running the business, operating assets minus operating liabilities.
3.4%
FY2025
Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is 3.4% in the latest fiscal year, against 2.7% in FY2023, having run between 2.7% and 6.0% across FY2023–FY2025 with no direction held. After-tax operating profit was $925M in FY2023 and $1.3B in FY2025. The capital base behind it grew +18% across FY2023–FY2025, from $33.6B to $39.6B, and the return did not fall doing it, so the dollars added over that window earned at least the 2.7% the older base was already earning. FY2023's operating profit carried a $1.1B asset write-down and a $12M goodwill write-off that took about 2.1 points off that year's return, and FY2025's carried a $337M asset write-down and a $5M restructuring charge that took about 0.8 points off the latest; so, net of each other, the two charges add about 1.3 points to the +0.7-point change across FY2023–FY2025. FY2024's operating profit carried a $374M asset write-down that alone took about 0.9 points off that year's return; FY2024 sits between the two ends of FY2023–FY2025, so the charge shapes the path between them without moving the change across it. A non-cash write-down lowers the reported return in the year it lands.
FCF ($1.6B)
FY2025
Shareholder returns.Returned $501M to shareholders (buybacks + dividends) in FY2025, but free cash flow was ($1.6B) after capex — there was no free cash flow to fund the payout from at all, though operating cash flow alone was $4.3B — 12% of that. Capex and the payout together ran $2.1B past operating cash flow — a harder case than returns merely running ahead of free cash flow, since here there was none to run ahead of. It came out of the balance sheet's own liquid holdings, not new debt: cash and short-term investments fell $47M over FY2025 — $47M of the $2.1B. The FY2025 cash-flow statement filed $7M from sales and maturities of investments against $185M of investments purchased; net cash used in investing activities of $6.2B; net cash provided by financing activities of $2.0B.
$12M
FY2023
Goodwill impairments.Took $12M of goodwill writedowns across 1 year (FY2023 ($12M)) — about 5% of net income over the span. Writedowns mean past acquisitions underperformed what was paid for them.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$12.23B
Revenue Growth YoY-0.4%
Revenue CAGR (2yr)-1.7%
Net Margin7.4%
Free Cash Flow-$1.62B
Return on Equity23.6%
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from AES Corp's actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?