Forensic Analysis · Machinery & Fabricated Metal Products · as of Nov 8, 2026
Aaon, Inc. (AAON)
A forensic read on Aaon, Inc. built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
C · Mixed — selective
Forensic grade
Safe
Financial health
5.5
Distress distance
Watch
Earnings quality
4
Forensic signals
12.5%
ROE
20.1%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (auditor quality, say on pay, board independence, going concern). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
Aaon, Inc. earns a C (Mixed — selective) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 5.5, placing it in the Safe zone. 4 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by shareholder returns.
What the filings flag
11722% of OCF
FY2025
Shareholder returns.Returned $63M to shareholders (buybacks + dividends) in FY2025 — 11722% of operating cash flow. Capex isn't disclosed for FY2025, so this is the ceiling on coverage, not the free-cash-flow payout; returns exceed even operating cash, so the extra is coming from debt or reserves.
0.78×
FY2023–FY2025
Cash conversion.Over FY2023–FY2025, cumulative operating cash flow was 0.78× cumulative net income. Cash is lagging reported profit. The shortfall is profit tied up in working capital rather than collected — the accrual and receivables lines below show where.Cash conversion: operating cash flow divided by net income, the share of profit that arrived as cash.
80d DSO
FY2024→FY2025
Receivables vs revenue.Days sales outstanding moved from 45 to 80 days FY2024→FY2025 (receivables +113% vs revenue +20%). Only 78¢ of operating cash arrived for every dollar of profit reported over FY2023–FY2025 ($352.0M against $453.8M), and the receivables balance is one of the places the rest is sitting. Across FY2023–FY2025 the day count ran 43 → 45 → 80 days, so the latest reading sits on top of a record that was flat or falling before it — one year's move, not a direction the business has been travelling in. Deferred revenue grew +441% over the same period, which accounts for part of the balance but not for a day count that widened against the same quarters a year earlier. Measured against the same quarter twelve months earlier — like-for-like on the calendar, so an ordinary seasonal build cannot produce it — receivables took longer to collect in 7 consecutive quarters (Dec 2024 +4, Mar 2025 +8, Jun 2025 +7, Sep 2025 +23, Dec 2025 +23, Mar 2026 +6, Jun 2026 +3 days). In the latest of them the receivable balance grew +112% against sales +101%, so more of a quarter's billings were still outstanding at the period end than a year earlier — money the company has recognized and not yet been paid. Both figures are measured on period-end balances rather than the beginning-plus-ending average, because averaging needs the balance a year before every reading — FY2024's opening balance is on file, but across the 3 fiscal years read here (FY2023–FY2025) the average yields only 2 day counts (1 step), too few to tell a climb from one year's move.DSO (days sales outstanding): the average days the company waits to collect cash after a sale.
10.3%
FY2025
Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is 10.3% in the latest fiscal year and slipping across FY2023–FY2025 from 22.2%. After-tax operating profit was $181M in FY2023 and $122M in FY2025, with operating income at 19.5% of revenue in FY2023, 17.4% in FY2024 and 10.1% in FY2025. The capital base behind it grew +46% across FY2023–FY2025, from $814M to $1.2B, while the return fell 11.9 points, so the dollars added over that window earned less than the 22.2% the older base was already earning.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$1.44B
Revenue Growth YoY+20.1%
Revenue CAGR (2yr)+11.1%
Net Margin7.5%
Return on Equity12.5%
Debt / Equity0.00x
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from Aaon, Inc.'s actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?