Forensic Analysis · Industrials / Manufacturing / Defense · as of Aug 11, 2026
Aaon, Inc. (AAON)
A forensic read on Aaon, Inc. built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
D · Weak — demands caution
Forensic grade
Safe
Financial health
14.0
Distress distance
Watch
Earnings quality
5
Forensic signals
64.6
P / E (ttm)
12.0%
ROE
$7.3B
Market cap
0.44%
Dividend yield
20.1%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (red flags, auditor quality, say on pay, board independence). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
Aaon, Inc. earns a D (Weak — demands caution) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 14.0, placing it in the Safe zone. 5 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by shareholder returns.
What the filings flag
11722% of OCF
FY2025
Shareholder returns.Returned $63M to shareholders (buybacks + dividends) in FY2025 — 11722% of operating cash flow. Capex isn't disclosed for FY2025, so this is the ceiling on coverage, not the free-cash-flow payout; returns exceed even operating cash, so the extra is coming from debt or reserves.
0.78×
FY2023–FY2025
Cash conversion.Over FY2023–FY2025, operating cash flow was 0.78× cumulative net income. Cash is lagging reported profit. The shortfall is profit tied up in working capital rather than collected — the accrual and receivables lines below show where.
58d DSO
FY2024→FY2025
Receivables vs revenue.Days sales outstanding moved from 43 to 58 days FY2024→FY2025 (receivables +113% vs revenue +20%). Only 78¢ of operating cash arrived for every dollar of profit reported over FY2023–FY2025 ($352.0M against $453.8M), and the receivables balance is one of the places the rest is sitting. Across FY2021–FY2025 the day count ran 40 → 41 → 41 → 43 → 58 days, so the latest reading sits on top of a record that was flat or falling before it — one year's move, not a direction the business has been travelling in. Deferred revenue grew +441% over the same period, which accounts for part of the balance but not for a day count that widened against the same quarters a year earlier. Measured against the same quarter twelve months earlier — like-for-like on the calendar, so an ordinary seasonal build cannot produce it — receivables took longer to collect in 7 consecutive quarters (Dec 2024 +4, Mar 2025 +8, Jun 2025 +7, Sep 2025 +23, Dec 2025 +23, Mar 2026 +6, Jun 2026 +3 days). In the latest of them the receivable balance grew +112% against sales +101%, so more of a quarter's billings were still outstanding at the period end than a year earlier — money the company has recognized and not yet been paid.
9.0%
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$1.44B
Revenue Growth YoY+20.1%
Revenue CAGR (3yr)+17.5%
Net Margin7.5%
Return on Equity12.0%
Debt / Equity0.00x
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from Aaon, Inc.'s actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?
Data from SEC EDGAR public filings · metrics as of Aug 11, 2026. Forensic signals flag probability, not certainty.
FY2025
Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is 9.0% in the latest fiscal year and slipping from 15% — around its ~9% cost of capital, so growth is roughly value-neutral.
+0.8%/yr
FY2022–FY2025
Share count.Diluted share count changed +2% over the last 3 years to FY2025 (+0.8%/yr). Roughly flat — buybacks ($30M) are about offsetting stock comp ($18M), not shrinking the count. Per-share value isn't being meaningfully helped or hurt by the count.
Aaon, Inc. (AAON) Stock — Forensic Analysis, Red Flags & Rating | Stockonomy · Stockonomy