Forensic Analysis · Primary Metals & Steel · as of Nov 9, 2026
Alcoa Corp (AA)
A forensic read on Alcoa Corp built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
C · Mixed — selective
Forensic grade
Grey Zone
Financial health
1.7
Distress distance
Clean
Earnings quality
4
Forensic signals
20.5%
ROE
7.9%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (auditor quality, say on pay, board independence, going concern). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
Alcoa Corp earns a C (Mixed — selective) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 1.7, placing it in the Grey zone. 4 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by share-count dilution.
What the filings flag
+21.1%/yr
FY2023–FY2025
Share-count dilution.Diluted share count changed +47% over the last 2 years to FY2025 (+21.1%/yr). The count is growing — 178.0M shares in FY2023, 261.0M in FY2025: more stock was issued than repurchased over this window, so aggregate results grew faster than their per-share equivalents. That's ~21.1% shaved off per-share growth every year — total profit has to grow that much just to keep earnings-per-share flat, and a stake held since FY2023 has been diluted ~32%.
0.3% of rev
FY2025
Stock-based comp load.Stock-based compensation ran 0.3% of revenue and 7% of free cash flow in FY2025 — about $0.16 per diluted share. No cash left the business to pay it, which is why operating cash flow adds it back. Net of repurchases the diluted count still rose about 21.1% a year across FY2023–FY2025 and that rate is not falling, so total profit has to grow by that much annually before any of it reaches a share. Stock compensation is one source of that issuance; acquisition consideration, equity raises, convertibles and other employee plans also net into the count, and these figures do not separate them.
10.8%
FY2025
Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is 10.8% in the latest fiscal year and rising across FY2023–FY2025 from -3.7%. After-tax operating profit was ($377M) in FY2023 and $1.1B in FY2025. The capital base behind it went from $10.3B in FY2023 to $10.2B in FY2025 (-1%), while the revenue it carried went from $10.6B to $12.8B. $1.4B of the $10.2B base at FY2025 is long-term marketable securities (13.7%) — securities held beside cash, which the base keeps because only cash is subtracted from it; they earn the balance sheet's yield, which is not in the operating profit above, so this rate understates what the operating capital earns. FY2025's operating profit carried a $340M asset write-down and a $144M goodwill write-off that alone took about 4.3 points off that year's return, so the latest return is depressed by that charge. A non-cash write-down lowers the reported return in the year it lands.
$144M
FY2025
Goodwill impairments.Took $144M of goodwill writedowns across 1 year (FY2025 ($144M)) — about 12% of net income over the span. Writedowns mean past acquisitions underperformed what was paid for them.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$12.83B
Revenue Growth YoY+7.9%
Revenue CAGR (2yr)+10.3%
Net Margin9.0%
Free Cash Flow$567.0M
Return on Equity20.5%
Debt / Equity0.40x
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from Alcoa Corp's actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?