Forensic Analysis · Materials / Mining & Chemicals · as of Aug 11, 2026
Alcoa Corp (AA)
A forensic read on Alcoa Corp built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
C · Mixed — selective
Forensic grade
Grey Zone
Financial health
2.5
Distress distance
Clean
Earnings quality
5
Forensic signals
9.9
P / E (ttm)
18.9%
ROE
$13.6B
Market cap
0.84%
Dividend yield
7.9%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (red flags, auditor quality, say on pay, board independence). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
Alcoa Corp earns a C (Mixed — selective) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 2.5, placing it in the Grey zone. 5 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by share-count dilution.
What the filings flag
+13.0%/yr
FY2022–FY2025
Share-count dilution.Diluted share count changed +44% over the last 3 years to FY2025 (+13.0%/yr). The count is growing: more stock was issued than repurchased over this window, so aggregate results grew faster than their per-share equivalents. That's ~13.0% shaved off per-share growth every year — total profit has to grow that much just to keep earnings-per-share flat, and a stake held since FY2022 has been diluted ~31%.
0.3% of rev
FY2025
Stock-based comp load.Stock-based compensation ran 0.3% of revenue and 7% of free cash flow in FY2025 — about $0.16 per diluted share. The cost of it is not in the cash flow — no cash left the business — it is in the count: holders gave up about 13.5% of the company a year, and that rate is not falling. That is the figure to weigh, not the share of free cash flow.
10.2%
FY2025
Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is 10.2% in the latest fiscal year and rising from 5% — a modest positive spread over its ~8% cost of capital — growth adds value, though not dramatically.
$144M
FY2025–FY2025
Goodwill impairments.Took $144M of goodwill writedowns across 1 year (FY2025 ($144M)) — about 12% of net income over the span. Writedowns mean past acquisitions underperformed what was paid for them.
-92%
FY2016→FY2021
Dividend — cut.The payout was CUT ~92% in FY2021 (from FY2016) and hasn't been restored since. It still returns some cash, but it is NOT the dependable, rising dividend an unbroken streak implies.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$12.83B
Revenue Growth YoY+7.9%
Net Margin9.0%
Free Cash Flow$567.0M
Return on Equity18.9%
Debt / Equity0.40x
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from Alcoa Corp's actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?